‘PAHANG WILL REMAIN BN STRONGHOLD’
Split in Malay votes will favour coalition, says political analyst
THE opposition will fail to threaten the supremacy of Barisan Nasional in Pahang and will likely lose at least another parliamentary seat in the 14th General Election (GE14).
Political observers believe the split among Malay voters in the Temerloh parliamentary constituency will give BN an edge as a three-cornered fight looms between BN, Pas and Parti Amanah Negara (PAN). Pas won the seat in 2013.
A stiff fight is on the cards for the Kuantan parliamentary seat if between 10 and 15 per cent of Chinese voters returned to support BN, as anticipated.
BN seems certain to retain the 10 parliamentary seats it won in GE13, including Bentong, which is represented by MCA president Datuk Seri Liow Tiong Lai, although it could be shaky as Liow won only by a 379-vote majority.
Besides the Temerloh, Bentong and Kuantan parliamentary seats, other GE14 hot seats include Cameron Highlands, Bera and Indera Mahkota.
BN is expected to face little threat from the opposition to retain the state and hold on to its two-third state assembly majority to form the state government.
Political analyst Professor Dr Nik Ahmad Kamal Nik Mahmod said he saw no major changes in Pahang and the state would remain a BN stronghold despite attempts by the opposition, including Pakatan Harapan chairman Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who visited Pekan last month, to win over voters.
“Even if there are changes, it will only involve seats won by the opposition in GE13 (BN will recapture the seats in GE14).
“A tough fight is expected in Temerloh, which Pas won in GE13 when it was in the opposition pact with DAP and PKR.
“During GE13, Pas won due to support from Chinese voters, who backed the party on the basis that it represented the opposition pact, but since they have split, the votes may go to Pakatan Harapan, which will be represented by PAN.
“Malay votes will certainly split into three, namely BN, Pas and PAN, and this will favour BN. BN has a strong chance of winning if there are three-cornered fights. This is likely to happen.”
On Bentong, Nik Ahmad Kamal said a tough battle was on the cards, with the opposition hoping to take advantage of Liow’s narrow win in 2013.
“Like the previous general election, the opposition will work hard to win the people’s support, and the voting trend of the Chinese is expected to remain the same.
“Liow is expected to secure an improved majority through support from rural Malay voters including Felda settlers.”
He said the opposition would not be able to unseat BN in Pahang as the issues raised by the pact were seen as irrelevant.
He said this was on top of the split in Malay votes, loyalty of Malay voters in rural areas to BN and the fact that BN had the full backing from Felda settlers.
“Pahang is a huge state, where a majority of the voters live in the outskirts and in Felda settlements, so they stay loyal to BN to ensure continued development.
“Felda settlers will continue to support BN as they are unperturbed by national issues, including the controversial land matter in Jalan Semarak (Kuala Lumpur).
“They are more likely to be interested in matters concerning welfare and palm oil prices.”
Meanwhile, Pakatan Harapan and Pas have set a target of winning seven parliamentary and 21 state seats in GE14, which will allow them to form a state government with a simple majority.
State Pakatan Harapan chairman Datuk Fauzi Abdul Rahman said the pact was confident that its emphasis on the people’s wellbeing would attract voters.
“In 2008 (GE12), the opposition only won three state seats and two parliamentary seats, while in 2013, the numbers increased to 12 state seats and four parliamentary seats. We hope to continue the good run.
“Give Pakatan a chance to take over, and if we fail to carry out our responsibility, then maybe they can return to BN. We want to embrace mature politics by giving the voters a choice.”