President’s party almost always fares poorly in mid-term elections

But even if we assume that Trump is correct in his oft-repeated claim that he is responsible for these good economic times, and that most Americans agree that he deserves such credit (polls consistently show that they do not; a majority give Obama more credit than Trump), there is little evidence, either historically or empirically, to suggest that a vibrant economy, credited to Trump, will save his party from electoral disaster in November’s mid-term election.

In the first mid-term election year following a president’s inauguration, the party of the president almost always fares poorly, regardless of the state of the economy.

Indeed, the sitting president’s popularity is far more reliable than economic indicators in predicting mid-term outcomes.

Remember that all 435 House seats are up for grabs every two years, while only one-third of Senate seats (34 this year) are contested. This is why the House is always the focus of more attention in off-presidential-year voting.

Since the end of World War 2, the president’s party has lost an average of 27 seats in the first midterm election after he took office.

Even relatively popular presidents have had a tough time bucking this trend.

Nevertheless, a president who is popular — as evidenced by standard approval ratings — weighs down his party in this election less than unpopular presidents do.

The approval ratings at the time of first mid-term voting with new presidents is clear. Dwight Eisenhower had a 61 per cent approval rating in 1954, while John F. Kennedy’s was 61 per cent in 1962, and their parties lost 18 and four seats, respectively.

On the other hand, in 1982 a 42 per cent approval rating for Ronald Reagan foretold a loss of 26 GOP House seats, a rating of 46 per cent for Bill Clinton was followed by a loss of 52 seats for the Democrats in 1994, and, most recently, Obama’s 45 per cent approval came with a disastrous loss of 63 seats in 2010.

Presently, Trump’s approval rating hovers around 40 per cent. It was 46 per cent when he took office and has ranged between 35 per cent and his inaugurationday high, according to Gallup polling.

To wrest control of the House from Republicans, Democrats must pick up a net 24 seats in November. Remember, this is fewer than the average number of seats (27) picked up by the outparty in a president’s first midterm year.

The writer, a political scientist, is editor of the textbook ‘Economics’, 2nd edition, published in 2016 by SJ Learning. He is a member of the HELP University faculty