BN HAS ADVANTAGE IN PERAK
BN rejects Invoke poll results, says it will retain 31 state seats and add 5 more
RESEARCH outfit Invoke Malaysia’s poll has stated that Perak will be among the states that fall to the opposition in the upcoming 14th General Election. How true is this?
Many Barisan Nasional leaders have described the results of the research as merely the opposition’s psychological war to rule the state, which is now under the leadership of Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Dr Zambry Abd Kadir.
BN, through its own survey and meet-the-people programmes, predicted that the party would not only retain the 31 state seats it won in the previous general election, but take back five state seats.
Sources said BN could regain five Malay-majority seats — Kuala Sepetang, Changkat Jering, Selinsing, Titi Serong and Sungai Rapat.
Three of the state seats — Selinsing, Titi Serong and Sungai Rapat — are under Pas.
Kuala Sepetang is under PKR and Changkat Jering, Parti Amanah Negara.
The sources said BN could win these five seats if the right candidates were chosen among grassroots members, the right group was targeted and “white voters” retained.
“For instance, BN can take back the Kuala Sepetang seat if the party fielded a Malay candidate as 66 per cent of the voters there are Malays, while the candidate for the Sungai Rapat seat should be young since 46 per cent of the people casting their votes there are young voters.
“Selinsing is among the high potential seats in the state that can be regained if the party manages to resolve some issues involving fishermen there,” the sources said.
They added that the dispute between Pas and Parti Amanah Negara (PAN) would be advantageous to BN in the Titi Serong and Changkat Jering seats, while for the Gunung Semanggol seat, the candidate must be someone from a religious background.
“BN can win should it attract about 15 per cent of Chinese votes, besides naming the right candidates for the areas.
“For example, BN can win the Lubuk Merbau state seat, which it secured with a majority of only 53 in the 13th General Election, if it names a candidate from a religious background. This is because of the strong culture of religious education (sekolah pondok) there,” the sources said.
For the Kamunting state seat, the “army group” comprising 14 per cent of voters as well as a number of army veterans staying there, would help BN retain the seat.
Political analyst Dr Achmad Dzariean Mohd Nadzri said the most crucial factor was fielding winnable candidates.
Achmad Dzariean, who is Universiti Utara Malaysia’s Institute for Malaysian Political Analysis (Mapan) fellow, said BN should not stay in the comfort zone as the opposition wanted to wrest eight seats from BN, which the latter had won with slim majorities the last time.
“There is no doubt that the seat will change hands if BN instil confidence in voters, especially new voters, who are quite significant and can bring about surprise results.
“Voters are looking for the most capable candidates and BN needs to select those who are free from controversy.
They should steer clear of recycled candidates... old faces.”
Perak BN deputy chairman Datuk Shaarani Mohamad said he believed BN would regain at least five state seats or more.
“The involvement of Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin in Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia and Pakatan Harapan will not give a big impact to BN.
“According to Kuala Kangsar’s by-election pattern of voting in three-cornered fights, Chinese will give their votes to PAN, Pas voters will remain with Pas, so BN will win.”