ABE’S DILEMMA OVER NORTH KOREA
The Japanese leader has made solving the abduction issue one of the key objectives of his political career, but Kim Jong-un is giving him little leverage
EXACTLY 40 years ago this week, a young Japanese couple went for a romantic evening date on a beach in the southern Japanese island of Kyushu famous for its sunsets, but they disappeared never to be seen alive again by their friends and family.
Ichikawa Shuichi picked up his new girlfriend, Masumoto Rumiko, from her home in Kagoshima and they drove to Fukiagehama beach. He parked his car in the woods by the beach, but as they were walking through the sand dunes, they were grabbed by a group of men who bound and gagged them and threw them into a boat.
Subsequent family searches, police investigations and public appeals failed to provide any information on their whereabouts. It was not until more than two decades later, in 2002, that Japanese officials learnt officially that the couple had been incarcerated in North Korea.
But, Ichikawa and Masumoto were not alone; at the very least 17 Japanese were kidnapped from different places in the late 1970s (one support group argues the true number should be well over 100). The North Korean objectives were to “convert” these Japanese for use as spies or at the very least force them to become teachers for spies training to impersonate Japanese citizens.
It was the unconventional Japanese prime minister Koizumi Junichiro who tried to achieve a breakthrough on this issue. After tortuous behind-the-scenes negotiations, Koizumi flew to Pyongyang in September 2002, met with then North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, who apologised for “regrettable” actions by over-enthusiastic security officials and revealed that of 13 Japanese he acknowledged, five were still alive but eight had died. The five survivors accompanied Koizumi back to Tokyo.
Japanese opinion, initially relieved at the return of these five, quickly turned to anger at the unclear fates of the other victims, which included Ichikawa and Masumoto, both of whom were said by the North Koreans to have died of heart attacks, despite being in their mid-20s.
Over the subsequent years, North Korea has consistently argued that the matter has been settled, while Japan has continued to call for new investigations and searches. Family members argue for clarity and cling to the hope that in fact the missing Japanese might still be alive. So, it remains a politically sensitive issue, in which every new rumour quickly arouses public opinion. So, while joining the rest of the world in criticising North Korea over its nuclear and missile testing, the Japanese government has continued to push for a final resolution of this issue as well.
Its salience has been enhanced by the fact that one of the officials accompanying Koizumi on that flying visit to Pyongyang was Abe Shinzo, who is now the prime minister of Japan.
Indeed, Abe has made solving the abduction issue one of the key objectives of his political career. Not only has Abe spoken regularly with family members and endorsed their demands for openness and resolution by North Korea, but he has actively raised the issue during his meetings with foreign leaders. So much so that United States President Donald Trump was moved to acknowledge that it was “one of the truly most important things on Shinzo’s mind”.
Nothing if not a nationalist, Abe’s high profile on this issue has brought him domestic political benefits, but paradoxically it now places him in a dilemma at a time when dramatic change on the Korean peninsula seems in progress. While the leaders of other stakeholder countries have been queuing up to meet with the new North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to try to resolve the denuclearisation issue and secure a new peace structure on the Korean peninsula, Abe has been left out in the cold.
The Japanese are of course particularly sensitive to nuclear issues, having themselves suffered from nuclear attack, and North Korean missile tests which resulted in long-range missiles flying over Japanese territory only compounded their nervousness about North Korea’s actions and ambitions.
Over the past decade the nuclear and missile issues have become regular features of bilateral and multilateral meetings at the United Nations and around the Asian region. This year, however, since Jong-un began his “peace offensive”, the leaders of China, South Korea and the US (with Russia soon to join that club) have been drawn into bilateral meetings with Jong-un. But, not Abe.
While some of his officials have floated the idea of a dramatic visit to Pyongyang, Abe can only go there if he is certain that the North will provide something new on the kidnapped Japanese issue. Important and useful though talking to Jong-un directly about nuclear and missile problems might be, Abe cannot return from Pyongyang — or indeed from meeting Jong-un anywhere else — without some substantial movement on the kidnapped Japanese issue.
Jong-un reportedly told Trump during their Singapore Summit that he was willing to meet with the Japanese and on the sidelines of the recent Asean Regional Forum meeting in Singapore the Japanese foreign minister told his North Korean counterpart of Abe’s wish to meet. But Jong-un has shown himself to be a resourceful leader, who has rapidly learnt how to play the older leaders of his neighbouring states against each other.
Therefore, while making the occasional positive noise about meeting Abe, in reality Jong-un is well able to stall. In fact, Japan makes a convenient villain for North Korea. No diplomatic relations exist between them and the harsh history of Japanese occupation provides plenty of fuel for genuine Korean resentment.
Given that North Korean propaganda against the US has toned down recently, Japan neatly fills the gap as the subject of media vilification. Jong-un no doubtwould welcome significant Japanese aid and compensation which might follow reconciliation, but with other states are already showing signs of loosening United Nation’s sanctions his “need” for Japanese money is decreasing.
It may well be that Jong-un has little new to offer the Japanese, especially if the other kidnapped victims have indeed died (albeit not in the ways previously described by North Korea). Abe may have to be content with yet another North Korean agreement to re-investigate. Abe recently reiterated his “strong sense of mission” to solve this issue, but the ball is in the North Korea’s court and with little leverage available he may be forced to wait — and wait.
But Jong-un has shown himself to be a resourceful leader, who has rapidly learnt how to play the older leaders of his neighbouring states against each other.
The writer is adjunct professor at Lingnan University, Hong Kong (based in Melaka)