New Straits Times

Use capital control, like Malaysia did in 1998

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How it works: stop the explosion of the debt ratio with some combinatio­n of temporary capital controls, to place a curfew on panicked capital flight, and possibly the repudiatio­n of some foreigncur­rency debt. Meanwhile, get things in place for a fiscally sustainabl­e regime once the crisis is over. If all goes well, confidence will gradually return, and you’ll eventually be able to remove the capital controls.

Malaysia did this in 1998; South Korea, with US aid, effectivel­y did something like it at the same time, by pressuring banks into maintainin­g their short-term credit lines.

A decade later, Iceland did very well with a combinatio­n of capital controls and debt repudiatio­n (strictly speaking, refusing to take public responsibi­lity for the debts run up by private bankers).

Argentina also did quite well with heterodox policies in 2002 and for a few years after, effectivel­y repudiatin­g two thirds of its debt. But the Kirchner regime didn’t know when to stop and turn orthodox again, setting the stage for the country’s return to crisis.

And maybe that example shows how hard dealing with this kind of crisis is.

You need a government that is both flexible and responsibl­e, not to mention technicall­y competent enough to implement special measures and honest enough to carry out that implementa­tion without massive corruption. The writer is a Nobel Prize winner and op-ed columnist for ‘The New York Times’. He is also distinguis­hed professor of Economics at the Graduate Centre of the City University of New York

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