CAN PAS DELIVER FOR BN?

BN stands good chance of winning if Pas delivers GE14 votes to it

WILL Pas be able to deliver victory to Barisan Nasional? That is one of the questions on the lips of political pundits judging from the previous results of the by-elections for Cameron Highlands in the 14th General Election (GE14).

Let us look at the numbers — BN’s Datuk C. Sivarraajh obtained 10,307 votes, Pakatan Harapan’s M. Manogaran 9,710 votes, Pas’ Wan Mahadhir Wan Mahmud 3,587 votes, Parti Sosialis Malaysia’s B. Suresh Kumar 680 votes and Berjasa’s Mohd Tahir Kassim 81 votes.

Now, look into the numbers. With Pas on the ground to campaign for BN, can it shift the votes it received for Wan Mahadhir to BN candidate Ramli Mohd Nor?

Analyst Professor Dr Sivamurugan Pandian said in GE14, BN won 47 per cent of Malay votes, while Pas was close with 42 per cent.

He believed that Malays and Bumiputera community could become kingmakers, Malays forming 34 per cent and Orang Asli 22 per cent of the population.

“So there is a chance that this strategy (BN-Pas nexus) will work. Pas did win a sizeable number of votes, which if it can deliver to BN, will ensure the coalition’s victory.

“Voter turnout by the Malay and Orang Asli communities in Cameron Highlands was the highest during GE14.

“Other communities, whose addresses are mostly in Tanah Rata, did not return to vote as the majority of them live outside the constituency.”

That does seem to be an ideal case scenario for BN.

It is something that BN had hoped for during the Sungai Kandis by-election, where it was banking on the 7,500-odd votes Pas had won in GE14.

However, that did not pan out. BN lost by a considerable margin of 5,745 votes, including the 97 votes won by independent candidate M. Krishanasamy.

Several factors contributed to the defeat. They included the low turnout of voters at 49.4 per cent, and the state of confusion that overwhelmed Pas members due to the varied instructions on supporting the BN candidate.

So far, BN leaders have been modest in their expectations. Will its fight for Cameron Highlands suffer the same fate?

“There lies the challenge for Pas. While it is a suitable strategy for BN to field a local, or in this case, an Orang Asli candidate, will it be enough to score a victory? Will voters too exhibit political fatigue (as seen in some previous polls) that led to lower turnout on polling day?

“Malays and Bumiputera voted for the ruling party, which was BN, (due to its then position, which would be beneficial in meeting their interests).

“It will be interesting to see whether the Orang Asli will shift their alliance to PH for the same reason.”

A Pas insider said the party’s machinery was mobilising teams on the ground to embark on a subtle campaigning approach.

“There will not be so much of ceramah but more on meeting people on the ground, without so much fanfare. We are campaigning for BN in the Felda interior in Jelai. We plan to deliver the votes we won to our ally.”

PH, too, has realised that winning the votes of the respective major communities is crucial despite downplaying its focus on ethnic-based support.

PH’s Manogaran, who is trying his luck for the third time to win the parliamentary seat, has time and again reminded voters that the contest for Cameron Highlands was not a contest between ethnic groups.

“Although the BN candidate is an Orang Asli, I hope voters will not see this by-election from a race perspective. Allow voters to pick a candidate who can represent and bring people’s voices to Parliament,” Manogaran was quoted as saying.

The reminder was based on the racial denomination, which shows that not one group represented more than 40 per cent of the local population — Malays form 34 per cent, Chinese 30 per cent, Orang Asli 22 per cent and Indians 15 per cent.

But Manogaran’s sentiments ran contrary to PH’s plan to employ Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia’s machinery in Malayand Orang Asli-populated areas.

Bersatu Youth chief Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman was scheduled to play futsal and take part in a blowpipe competition at an Orang Asli village in Kampung Leryar yesterday.

Today, Pas’ top guns will head for Kuala Terengganu for a threeday retreat, during which brainstorming sessions will be held to discuss strategies to boost its campaign in Cameron Highlands.

Another Pas insider said the by-election would serve as a litmus test for the party’s political clout.

“We have a lot riding on this. Regardless of the numbers we achieved in the past, we have new challenges before us. The rival is from a ruling party. We have to work hard this time around.”