Rise of deepfake
Telenor Research predicts there will be seven tech trends to look out for this year. Balqis Lim writes
EVERY year, we see new technology trends spike like hotcakes, and constantly evolving and surprising us. While nobody has a magic crystal ball that can accurately tell the future, Telenor Group’s research arm, Telenor Research, has identified seven tech trends to look out for this year.
Its vice president, Bjørn Hansen, says its research department has marked several “interesting areas” people would need to approach cautiously and its use of technology in a responsible way.
“The world of ‘technology’ is constantly changing. With exciting innovations comes the need for reflection, pragmatism, and perspective. We think the tech pendulum is swinging in this direction in 2019. People are taking a step back and assessing what these developments and connectivity mean to them, their familities and communities.
“In the end, we all want the assurance that technology — no matter how advanced it may seem — can fit into our lives in a safe, sensible and positive way.”
RISE OF DEEPFAKE
Masks, shades and filters have been all the rage on social media, as have messaging apps, with advances in facial recognition on the iPhone X. This year, Telenor predicts that we’ll see more of “deepfake” content, which is created when Deep Learning meets Fake News. It basically means doctored photos and videos will be increasing, making it harder for the public to tell whether they are true.
The increase in deepfake content is because a large amount of work is going into algorithms called generative adversarial networks (GANs). A plethora of variants are emerging, and the systems as a whole are learning a lot faster.
“It is these algorithms that will enable the creation of deepfake content so advanced that we could have a difficult time differentiating between what’s real and what’s fake in the digital world. If people had trouble telling fake news posts apart from real news on social media between 2016 and 2018, it’s very possible that the boundaries will be blurred even more in 2019.”
Hansen says major events such as elections are likely to trigger the production of sophisticated deepfake content made to manipulate and misinform the public.
EYE ON ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Artificial intelligence will impact nearly every industry and society and will be among technologies that will receive more public scrutiny this year.
“We will see public and private bodies setting AI governance frameworks and adopting new codes of conduct to ensure that they operate with high ethical standards. This will be done to ensure that AI systems are non-discriminatory, transparent, traceable and secure, and that there are always humans in the loop who are accountable for their design, development and adoption.
“We will also see new venues for AI dialogues at all levels of politics, new platforms for education and training in AI, as well as investments in tools and systems that enable ethical AI development.”
The study reveals that most thriving AI ecosystems in the US and China might be able to grow and innovate faster than more regulated regions such as Europe. With ethical use of AI, Hansen says machine learning systems can solve problems for people in a secure, robust and reliable way.
ADVANCES IN 5G
In 2017, it was all about 5G testing, then pioneering uses of 5G during the 2018 Winter Olympics in South Korea. This year, we’ll see “5G islands” emerge across the world as large-scale pilots and trials (from Europe to North America and northeast Asia) connect selected communities and business networks.
Hansen says although 2020 is the year that 5G’s global standard will be released, commercial advances will surface sometime this year in the US and parts of Asia.
“We’ll also see some of the first marketing campaigns based on 5G. From the first self-driving, 5G-steered buses to automated fisheries, from 5G-driven TV and fixed broadband to potential applications of 5G-powered remote surgery — the 5G floodgates will open this year, paving the way for commercial services to hit the market in 2020.”
LARGE SCALE IOT
This year will see industrial IoT (Internet of Things) customers crack the transition from proof-of-concepts to large scale commercial deployments in low-power widearea (LPWA) ecosystems. Telenor expects this LPWA ecosystem to blossom this year in particular, enabling larger industrial applications which, to date, haven’t matured quickly.
“As the LPWA ecosystem matures and as developers vet much of its tech stack, we can expect to see industries roll out large scale IoT, particularly within the arenas of smart cities, industrial manufacturing and process industries, such as shipping, traffic, transport monitoring and fisheries. In short, IoT is going industrial this year,” says Hansen.
Different connectivity technologies serve different fields such as LTE networks for CCTV and in the automotive segment, which is already widespread, and smart metering for electricity and water. In agriculture, it is used for monitoring irrigation and pesticides.
CHATBOTS
According to Hansen, voice-activated chatbots will see a rise this year — mainly in household devices. They aren’t the most clever of systems yet, but as they advance we can expect more chatbots to help us in our homes to adjust lightings, change our playlists and control the air-conditioner.
“We think 2019 will see a huge growth of voice-controlled chatbots, leading to smarter voice-recognition applications, since they will be limited to a narrow skill set in which they will perform well. It is possible that domestic chatbots will be at the top of this year’s holiday wish lists in many markets around the world,” says Hansen.
DEVICE SCREEN TIME
Awareness of screen time and its effects is becoming widespread. As developers finetune the smartphone experience to enable us to manage use of device, people will use screen time tracking apps, night-time and “do-not-disturb” modes on phones. Some Android and iOS phones have also incorporated screen time widgets to let users know how much time they are spending on their phone daily.
“Beyond new apps and software, we could see more stringent limits on screen time in various social and professional settings. Mobile-free meals with family and friends, and mobile-free meetings are certainly becoming more common. Whatever the case, this latest burst of screen time products and campaigns by private industry go a long way to raise awareness,” he says.
“Moreover, those who are concerned about their own personal screen time but don’t want to disconnect altogether could opt for simpler connectivity. We see this in the form of wearables, other small connected devices and even flip phones,” says Hansen.
GREEN TECH
The United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s late 2018 report reveals that globalwarming is threatening the planet and our way of living. Hansen says as climate change causes greater concern, and awareness of our consumption skyrockets, a wave of mobile-driven green technology will help people live and consume more smartly than ever. This wave will reach its muchneeded crest this year.
“There are initiatives on how to use mobile technology to address these environmental challenges. For instance, recycling of food and ride sharing. In Malaysia, using Grab is also an efficient way to save the environment. This is an example of technology solving our everyday problems.
“On a holistic level, government policies, developer enthusiasm for green tech, consumer receptivity and social pressure help churn out greener tech and greener habits this year,” says Hansen.