LESSONS FROM PH’S WIN IN JOHOR

It will have to deal with the economic conditions of the swing voters to stay in power as they have no loyalty to either BN or PH

seats in favour of BN.

The day before (April 5), Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) was banned and DAP announced it would not use its own symbol in the peninsula — this was a momentous decision which allowed all PH parties to use one symbol in the peninsula. Tun Dr Mahathir Mohammad worked tirelessly to nudge all parties to agree at PH Presidential Council meetings, which happened almost weekly from February last year onwards.

PH was founded on Sept 22, 2015, after the collapse of Pakatan Rakyat (PKR) at the Pas muktamar on June 6, 2015. It was the first time in history that Pas and Umno suffered a split at the same time. Pas’ conservative wing wiped out the progressives in the party election, while then Umno president Najib sacked Johor-based Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin and Sabah’s Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal from the cabinet and pushed out Kedah menteri besar Datuk Seri Mukhriz Mahathir.

The coalition went through major and previously unthinkable game changers:

long-drawn out negotiations, the original parties (PKR, DAP and Amanah) realigned with forces aligned to Dr Mahathir;

Dr Mahathir as chairman of PH on July 14, 2017;

Dr Mahathir as prime ministerial candidate, Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail as deputy prime minister candidate, and Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim as eight prime minister candidate on Jan 7, 2018;

a result of negotiations for the prime minister candidate deal, PH also managed to announce the completion of seat negotiations of parliamentary seats in the peninsula on Jan 7, 2018;

Jan 18, PH Johor became the first state to complete negotiation for state seats and paved the way for a very active engagement and preparation on the ground; and,

March 18, 2018, I was announced the candidate for Ayer Hitam. By taking the fight to one of BN’s strongest fortress, the aim was to galvanise the ground for all seats in Johor, with the hope of pushing up support for PH nationally.

On April 6, 2018, all top PH leaders gathered in Pasir Gudang for the final destination of a 100day roadshow since Jan 27. At the Pasir Gudang rally, Dr Mahathir, Wan Azizah, Muhyiddin, Amanah president Mat Sabu, DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng were on stage waving the PKR flag as the agreed symbol for PH in front of thousands of mostly local Johor Malays. How to prove that they were mostly locals? It took us almost an hour and half to leave the scene after the event. No bus. All local cars and motorcycles.

While the opposition was the most prepared ever, Najib and BN still thought they could win with a two-thirds majority with its strategy that painted PH as a DAP-led coalition to keep Malay voters for Umno and Pas’ three-cornered fight to split the votes.

BN banked on the power of incumbents and also its supposedly strong grassroots machinery and traditional elite allies in the state and in the semi-rural constituencies to help contain any fallout.

On April 7, 2018, Tunku Mahkota Johor fired the first salvo and openly called for the voters not to change the ship captain. Malaysians found that tens of thousands took to Facebook to openly defy TMJ. The limitation of traditional symbols was clearly shown.

As I predicted long before, the 2018 election was not an election for PH. It was an election to reject Najib and BN. On the west coast of the peninsula, more than 15 per cent of Malay voters swung away from Umno to PH and on the east coast, they swung to Pas. In Johor, as Pas had very little influence, the swing away from Umno translated into massive gains for PH.