Johor remains the most important battleground state

Two major factors eluded most political analysts.

First, while Umno, MCA and MIC controlled the local elite networks in the small towns in Johor, the younger generation didn’t stay in their kampung.

They worked in Kuala Lumpur and Singapore. It was the return of these economic voters who did not have to rely on Umno or MCA village heads for small favours that changed the landscape altogether.

The same phenomena happened to Malays, Chinese and Indians. In many ways, we are different in cultural backgrounds but the economic conditions of all ethnic groups are quite similar. The PH government will have to deal with the economic conditions of all these swing economic voters to stay in power. They have no loyalty to BN nor PH.

Second, the traditional elite groups in small towns in Johor and other semi-urban areas in the west coast of the peninsula may still have influence and may still be card-carrying members of BN today, but because BN’s local structure ossified over the years, the new PH government may be able to build a new set of local structures through local leaders a generation younger.

But again, economic development in these areas matters a lot if such a new generation of leadership were to be found and groomed.

Some forms of reverse migration to these areas would be needed. A year since the election, Johor remains the most important battleground between PH and BN. Whoever wins Johor will win federal power.

The writer is DAP Johor chairman and one of Johor Pakatan Harapan’s deputy chairmen