AIRBUS REVISES UP JET DEMAND FORECAST
Passenger jets, freighters fleet would more than double to 47,680 aircraft by 2038
AIRBUS yesterday revised up forecasts for jetliner demand over the next 20 years, led by growth in the new industrial hubs of Asia despite short-term concerns over global trade tensions.
The European planemaker said the world’s fleet of passenger jets and freighters would more than double to 47,680 aircraft by 2038.
That is slightly less than the size of the future fleet Airbus had anticipated in a comparable forecast a year ago, as airlines squeeze more productivity out of their aircraft.
But the demand for new jets needed to reach that total has been revised upwards because Airbus believes airlines will replace a greater proportion of jets than previously thought.
Airbus said it now expects airlines and leasing companies to take delivery of 39,210 new passenger jets and freighters over the next two decades compared with 37,389 previously forecast.
It expects 36 per cent of these new deliveries to replace existing aircraft with the rest slated to meet growth in demand, with traffic expected roughly to double over 15 years.
A year ago, Airbus had predicted that just 29 per cent of future deliveries would be replacing existing jets.
Airbus, however, trimmed its forecast for average traffic growth to 4.3 per cent a year from 4.4 per cent in its previous report. Airline industry statistics show traffic is growing but at a slower rate this year amid international trade tensions.
The company revised up its forecast for the industry’s bestselling single-aisle jets by four per cent to 29,720 planes, but cut the medium segment, including its A330neo, by two per cent to 5,370.
It followed United States rival Boeing in scrapping separate forecasts for the world’s largest four-engined aircraft such as the Airbus A380 or Boeing 747.
Airbus decided in February to halt production of the doubledecker A380 due to weak demand.
It now includes these aircraft with the largest twin-engined jets such as the Airbus A350 and Boeing 777, with the resulting combined category up by an implied 22 per cent to 4,120 aircraft.