Chances of no-deal Brexit fall with Boris set to win polls

LONDON: The chances of a nodeal Brexit fell because Prime Minister Boris Johnson looks set to win a Dec 12 election and secure the backing in Parliament he needs to get his new Withdrawal Agreement passed, a poll found.

The median probability of a disorderly Brexit, where no deal is agreed, dropped to 20 per cent in the Nov 8 to 12 Reuters poll of economists from 30 per cent last month, the lowest since a poll taken in May soon after the European Union granted another delay to Britain’s departure.

“Brexit headwinds have dissipated as the threat of no-deal last month passed and the Brexit deadline was pushed out again.

“The focus has clearly shifted to the UK election campaign,” said Victoria Clarke, an economist at Investec.

Giving Johnson his biggest boost of the election campaign, Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party on Monday pulled out of contesting 317 seats held by the ruling Conservatives in a bid to prevent opponents of Brexit controlling Parliament.

That may help give Johnson a parliamentary majority in the Dec 12 election and allow him to deliver on the June 2016 referendum result to take Britain out of the EU.

Johnson’s Conservative Party edged ahead of the opposition Labour Party during the past week, a public opinion poll by ICM showed on Monday.

A large majority of economists said London and Brussels would agree to a free trade deal.

The second most likely scenario was again for Britain to remain a member of the European Economic Area, which would mean paying into the EU budget to retain access to the single market.

Third spot was the more extreme option of leaving without a deal and trading under World Trade Organisation rules.