SUGA MAY BREAK ‘PM CURSE’
Initial support Suga received indicates he may continue Abe’s long streak
THE last time a long-serving prime minister stepped down, the country saw about six leaders in quick succession, who each only managed to last for about a year.
Shinzo Abe, who is set to hand over power today, then brought stability over an eight-year period that saw him become the country’s longest-serving prime minister. The challenge now is for his designated successor, Yoshihide Suga, to continue that run.
“If anyone has a chance of breaking the ‘curse,’ it’s Suga,” said Tobias Harris, an analyst at advisory firm Teneo Intelligence and author of a new biography of Abe.
“His ability to control the bureaucracy, his relationships with the ruling coalition, and the public’s desire to avoid a return to the revolving door all suggest that he could be well positioned to win a term of his own next year and wield power for several years.”
Suga, the 71-yearold son of a northern strawberry farmer, easily won a vote on Monday to lead the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, and will be formally installed as prime minister during a parliamentary vote today.
He will initially serve the remaining year of Abe’s term in office, though some key party members have raised the prospect Suga may soon call an election to get a fresh mandate while the opposition remains weak.
Despite the devastation to the economy due to the coronavirus, Suga inherits a relatively stable Japan: Abe gradually improved ties with China, safeguarded military and economic interests after United States President Donald Trump took office and eased worries in financial markets.
Investors had little reaction to Suga’s victory on Monday, signaling they don’t see a departure from the path of Abenomics — a prospect that could send the yen surging and stocks sliding.
The ease of Suga’s victory is a good sign for his ability to manage the LDP factions. The party coalesced around him almost as s o o n a s A b e a nnounced his intent to step down over health issues last month. Instead of a bruising fight, faction bosses opted for an election system that favoured Suga, and within two days, had lined up enough support for him to win — even before official campaigning had started.
While Suga doesn’t have his own formal faction, he has honed his skills as a pragmatic backroom fixer during his time as the country’s longest-serving chief cabinet secretary.
His strong alliances with the likes of Toshihiro Nikai, an influential faction leader as well as LDP secretary-general, underpinned his win on Monday.
In a sign of maintaining stability, Finance Minister Taro Aso, a faction boss who backed Suga, will retain his cabinet post in the new government, the Nikkei newspaper reported yesterday. Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi will also stay in his post when the new cabinet is announced today, broadcaster NTV said.
Suga also has certain advantages over Abe’s predecessors, who lost public support due to policy stumbles or scandals. In the 50 years prior to Abe’s record run, Japan averaged a new prime minister about every two years.
For one, Suga’s blessed with an opposition that has largely failed to pose a threat in terms of voter support over the past eight years.
A series of LDP prime ministers saw their policy agendas stymied in the opposition-dominated upper house of Parliament, culminating in the party’s historic election defeat to the Democratic Party of Japan in 2009.