Marcos dynasty back with decisive win by Bongbong

FERDINAND Romualdez Marcos Jr, or Bongbong Marcos, and his vice-presidential running mate Sara Duterte-Carpio’s victory in the Philippines election on May 9 was described as a surprise, unexpected and some even calling it as a shock.

Yet the writing was on the wall since last year, with opinion polls showing Bongbong, 64, and Duterte-Carpio, 43, way ahead of their rivals.

From the beginning of the campaign till polling day, some 20 opinion polls consistently gave the edge to Bongbong, who drew between 49.8 and 64 per cent support.

An MBC-DZRH opinion poll in April saw Marcos Jr garnering a 52.9 per cent support rate. For the other major candidates, VicePresident Leni Robredo placed second at 24.3 per cent, followed by Manila Mayor Isko Moreno at 8.2 per cent and boxer Senator Manny Pacquiao at 5.8 per cent.

In the opinion polls for vicepresidential candidates, DuterteCarpio held a steady lead over her rivals, garnering between 53 to 62 per cent support.

What was astonishing was not that the duo won, but the manner in which they did.

Bongbong’s victory was described as a landslide, garnering more than 31 million votes, or 58.8 per cent in unofficial results, with more than 98 per cent of the votes tabulated up to May 13.

His nearest challenger, Robredo, had 14.8 million votes, and Pacquiao was third at 3.6 million votes.

Bongbong’s victory margin sees him becoming the first majority president since Marcos Sr, and was the biggest victory margin for any presidential candidate since the 1987 Philippine Constitution was adopted.

The previous winners’ victory margin saw Fidel V. Ramos gaining 23.58 per cent in 1992; Joseph Estrada 39.86 per cent in 1998; Gloria Macapagal Arroyo 39.99 per cent in 2001; Benigno Aquino III 42.08 per cent in 2010; and, Rodrigo Duterte 30.01 per cent in 2016.

Online portal Rappler said a breakdown of where the votes went showed that Marcos Jr repeated his 2016 performance by dominating Luzon, including the “Solid North” and vote-rich Metro Manila, excluding Robredo’s home region Bicol. Robredo won in Quezon Province, Northern and Eastern Samar, as well as provinces in Western Visayas.

It said what was new this year was that Marcos Jr also won over every province in Mindanao, except for two provinces, where he placed second.

In terms of the change in voter share, in Manila, the stronghold of Moreno and the second-most vote-rich city, Marcos still won in the capital city.

It was a close fight. Marcos led by 60,789 votes, accounting for 40.90 per cent of the total votes against Moreno’s 33.92 per cent, the portal said.

Equally astonishing is CarpioDuterte’s victory, having garnered 31.5 million votes, or 61.3 per cent of the votes cast, leaving her competitors in the dust.

The election of Bongbong and Carpio-Duterte is not the first time political scions have prevailed in the Southeast Asian nation of 7,640 islands.

Marcos Jr’s victory sees him follow Marcos Sr, a six-term president ousted as a dictator, by the People’s Power Revolution in 1986.

The other scions occupying the top post in the past were ninth president Diosdado Macapagal and his daughter Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, the 14th Philippines president.

A mother-son combination saw Corazon Aquino become the 11th president and her son Benigno Aquino III, the 15th president.

Marcos Jr’s running mate Duterte-Carpio, is the daughter of outgoing President Rodrigo Duterte.

Mely Caballero-Anthony, the head of the Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, said apart from the dark pall cast over Marcos Jr’s presidency by his family’s history of repression, cronyism, and kleptocracy, much of the concern were expressed not only by the opposition, but also by certain quarters of the Philippines’ policy community, with the lack of clarity of Marcos Jr’s platform.

“With the candidate having snubbed all presidential debates, many are left guessing how the Marcos administration is going to address the many challenges facing the Philippines.

“There are also fears that with Sara Duterte as vice-president, Marcos Jr will protect his predecessor from investigations and prosecution for human rights violations and extrajudicial killings carried out during his ‘war on drugs’ policy”,” she said in an article for Brookings.edu

Carrying the hopes and aspirations of 109.6 million Filipinos, Bongbong’s other challenges include the Philippines’ ties with China and economic recovery after Covid-19, among others.

The next resident of Malacanang Palace will take office on June 30 for a single six-year term.