‘Trade performance to stay resilient’
KUALA LUMPUR: MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Bhd has upgraded Malaysia’s export and import growth forecasts for this year to 16.9 and 19.2 per cent, respectively, after factoring in the robust trade performances from January to April and expected sustained growth going forward.
It said yesterday Malaysia’s external trade performance has been more resilient compared with its earlier expectations, with exports expanding faster in the recent months compared with major economies like China, the United States and the European Union.
It said in general, Malaysia would benefit from continued growth in global demand, particularly for electrical and electronics (E&E) goods and commodities such as palm oil, liquefied natural gas and oil.
“We foresee imports to grow further in the coming months as the momentum of growth for the economy will remain positive amid further relaxation of Covid19 restrictions and standard of procedure.
“We remained cautious that the ongoing war in Ukraine and the lockdown in China would result in a weaker outlook for global demand in the second quarter,” it said.
On last month’s economic performance, it said Malaysia’s total trade rose 21.3 per cent year-onyear to RM231.4 billion, which was better than expected as import growth was higher than estimated.
Export growth moderated as expected to 20.7 per cent year-onyear compared with 25.3 per cent in March.
“While we had anticipated the lockdown in China to affect Malaysia’s trade performance, the moderation in last month’s exports was mainly underpinned by slower export growth to Asean countries.”
It said exports to Asean countries moderated to 14.2 per cent year-on-year last month from 37.6 per cent in March, especially to Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines.
In contrast, it added that exports to other destinations such as China, the US and EU surprisingly picked up last month.
It also said Malaysia’s exports to China were driven by increased shipments of manufacturing goods, mainly E&E and palm oil-based products and mining goods, while the stronger export growth to the US and EU was largely driven by demand for E&E products.