Analysts see BN victory
KOTA KINABALU: Political analysts are confident that Barisan Nasional (BN) will win the forthcoming general election and Sabah will remain the stronghold of the coalition.
Local political analyst Assoc Prof Dr Jeniri Amir said BN backbone party United Malays National Organisation (Umno) will still be dominant to make Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak the Malaysian premier again.
Among the reasons are the feel-good factor among majority of the Malays on Muslim unity through Umno and Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) and that Sabah and Sarawak will remain BN strongholds again.
Jeniri claimed the biggest stumbling block for the opposition front is PAS.
“With PAS not on the same page with Pakatan Harapan (PH) fold I can sense that it would be difficult for them (opposition) to win the general election (GE). PAS’ apparent association with Umno is giving advantage to the BN coalition,” said Jeniri when contacted yesterday.
Jeniri said the recent delineation exercise, in practicality, would always favour the government of the day.
“The delineation exercise on several constituencies has aggravated the problem for Pakatan Harapan because gerrymandering is always on the back of their (authority) mind. There is a term we called ‘packing’ – a mode where the authority will increase the number of voters in areas where the ruling party has marginal chance to win,” he said.
“With these two major factors, I think the opposition will have slim chance of winning the GE,” he added.
Jeniri said he could foresee many three-cornered contests, which might be a factor against the opposition because split votes might favour the ruling party to win back Selangor and Kelantan.
He said with the absence of their “supreme spiritual leader”, former PAS president the late Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat, constituents in Kelantan would shift loyalty to Umno because Umno is now being seen as a party that unites Muslims.
“BN will wrest Kelantan from the opposition. The perception of the people has changed. The Menteri Besar is being seen as not performing compared to Nik Aziz. They looked up to Nik Aziz. After Nik Aziz passed away, they said they had lost their supreme spiritual leader.”
He said Sabah will remain BN’s stronghold because the strength of the opposition party Warisan led by Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal is “only limited to certain areas”.
“The opposition (in Sabah) can win two or three more seats but the fold cannot win all. Shafie’s influence is limited to certain areas only,” he claimed.
Moreover, the Kadazan-Dusun community is sceptical about Warisan because of the record of its Muslim leaders. They felt they were marginalised by them before,” he added.
Sarawak will continue to be BN’s fixed deposit, he pointed out.
The direct BN candidacy may be a solution to problems on overlapping claims on seats by BN components but it is just a shortterm measure, Jeniri said.
“If only SUPP and UPP could reconcile and unite – in whatever form – the BN could even win back Sibu parliamentary constituency,” he said, referring to Sarawak United People’s party and United People’s Party.
“Stop using direct candidates otherwise there will be no end to that (short term measure),” he added.
“Except for Kedah, the fight will be straightforward for the BN in other states in Malaysia,” Jeniri said, acknowledging the Kedah opposition will be led by former Prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohammad and his son Datuk Mukhriz.
Chief researcher of an electoral survey conducted by Universiti Malaya, Assoc Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi, said the survey indicated a BN victory in the general election which must be called latest by August 2018.
Azman also believes the UmnoPAS electoral pact and numerous three-cornered contests are major factors for Najib to be returned as the Prime Minister.
The issues surrounding the interim prime minister should PH win would contribute to split among the coalition during the general election, he added.
“So BN would have no problem in winning the election again and this is also because the BN has the access, the resources and the agencies in all strategic places to win,” he pointed out.
Azman believes that BN Sarawak will contribute in increasing the votes for the BN coalition.
He said issues surrounding devolution of power from the federal to the state government and effects of Goods and Services Tax (GST) would not influence the votes of the majority, particularly in the rural areas where the true strength of BN Sarawak lies.
“Based on our research and survey in UM, Umno will win more seats and PAS will lose more seats this time around,” Azman pointed out.
According to the survey, Najib is the preferred leader to be prime minister. UM carried out the electoral survey at 12 parliamentary constituencies between July and December last year, he said.
Najib scored a rating of 21 per cent among the respondents, ahead of Dr Mahathir at 18 per cent, followed by de facto opposition leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim (10 per cent), Defence Minister Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein (nine per cent) and PAS president Datuk Abdul Hadi Awang (seven per cent).
Azman, however, pointed out that Dr Mahathir’s popularity might be higher if the survey had been done after he was named as the possible prime minister candidate if the opposition wins the GE.
The survey involved 1,550 respondents at the 12 parliamentary constituencies who were asked about a variety of electoral-related issues. The constituencies were Jerlun, Permatang Pauh, Kuala Krai, Kuala Terengganu, Sepang, Bandar Tun Razak, Gelang Patah, Pasir Gudang, Penampang, Semporna, Petra Jaya and Bandar Kuching.
Of the 12 seats surveyed, three were Barisan Nasional while the rest were opposition – PKR (two). Amanah (two), DAP (two), Warisan (one), PAS (one) and Independent (one), said Azman.
Political observer Datuk Peter Minos said despite the high cost of living affecting the people, their happiness with the new Sarawak Chief Minister Datuk Patinggi Abang Johari Tun Openg in fighting poverty by introducing several economic initiatives would make Sarawak the “fixed deposit” of BN again.
“The Sarawak BN is solid and it is not really affected by issues in Kuala Lumpur except for the cost of living. Sarawakians are not keen on supporting PAS, DAP and PKR – seen by them as Peninsular Malaysian-based parties,” he said.
Sarawak BN is made up of Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB), Progressive Democratic Party (PDP) and Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS) apart from SUPP. BN-friendly parties; namely UPP and Parti Tenaga Rakyat Sarawak (Teras) are also supporting it.
Meanwhile, a nationwide survey carried out by Merdeka Centre for Opinion Research shows BN is expected to regain a two-thirds majority in the 14th general election.
The poll done in December revealed that BN’s share of the popular vote is likely to shrink further but a combination of threecornered fights and redelineation could enable the coalition to win in the elections.
PH fractious nature could also drive the opposition’s failure, according to the survey.
“BN is just 13 seats short of regaining a two-thirds majority in Dewan Rakyat. With an intra-opposition deal looking increasingly remote, BN is in a position to regain its two-thirds,” said Merdeka Centre director Ibrahim Suffian.
“The opposition’s prospects range from slim to zero as PAS leaders appear keen to prevent a PH victory. PAS seems ready to assist Umno on the grounds of preserving Malay political hegemony.”
PAS may see losses in Kelantan and Selangor in return for “unspecified rewards”, the survey said.
If Najib wins, he will owe much of his victory to PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang, whose decision to let his party stand apart from PH would have effectively split the Malay vote for the opposition to tilt the contest in Umno’s favour.
Key battle states in GE14 will be Kedah, Selangor, Kelantan, Terengganu, Johor, and Sabah.
The survey notes that public opinion of the opposition took a dip in December. Only 21% of the total respondents said they are “happy” with PH, and only 13% of Malay respondents feel the same.
At the same time, opinion of the government has steadily improved since September although the public mood remains cautious due to economic and political factors.
In December, 37% of respondents said the country was headed in the right direction and 50% disagreed.
The study shows that the top three concerns of Malaysians are still inflation (68%), corruption (36%) and job opportunities (19%).