Dr M may win Langkawi but not Kedah – analyst
KUALA LUMPUR: Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad will likely win the Langkawi parliamentary seat but Barisan Nasional (BN) will retain Kedah, an analyst said yesterday.
At the Merdeka Center Seminar on GE14, Prof Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani from Universiti Utara Malaysia said BN had the financial means and a solid game plan to retain the state.
“BN has the best machinery in Kedah. They know how to play the game. People in all constituencies know their leaders because these leaders show up at all social events.
“They play with that sense of familiarity by fielding mostly incumbents for this upcoming election,” he said at Menara Chulan on Jalan Conlay here.
On April 28, BN announced that it will field 24 new faces out of a total of 52 candidates for both parliamentary and state constituencies.
Mohd Azizuddin said although it is undeniable that Dr Mahathir appeals to Langkawi folk, the former prime minister's presence alone is not enough to capture Kedah.
“Dr M is a factor on his own but it is not enough. Pakatan on a national level may look united but there is in-fighting on the grassroots level.
“Umno's countering this by showcasing solidarity by fielding old faces. This way they can also ensure there will be no element of sabotage,” he said.
He said this was evident after Dr Mahathir's recent visit to Felda Bukit Tangga in Bukit Kayu Hitam where he was greeted by a 2,000-strong crowd.
But Mohd Azizuddin said a follow-up survey showed that the event did not necessarily translate into actual support at the ballot box for Dr Mahathir.
“We sent a team to do a survey and found that although they showed up for his ceramah, firstgeneration Felda settlers are still Umno supporters at heart.
“The second and third generations may be swayed but attendance alone does not guarantee votes,” he said.
Out of the state's 15 parliamentary seats, he predicted that BN will win seven seats, Pakatan will win eight, while PAS will not win any.
Meanwhile, out of the 36 state seats, he said 16 seats will go to BN, 12 seats to Pakatan and the remainder to PAS.
“Although it may seem like a fight between BN and Pakatan, PAS still have strong support in Jerai, Jerlun and Kuala Nerang,” he said.