Will there be a major surprise for all Malaysians today?
By this evening we will know the election results and who will have won and lost, in the Peninsula and in Sabah and Sarawak.
As of now there are many speculations and beliefs as to what will transpire in this historic 14th General Election (GE14). Many shout out their respective fights, and many of these battle cries are not genuine.
I have noticed a lot of people in the Barisan Nasional camps (markases or watering holes) are just pretenders, being there because of the good amount of food and drinks, as well as the prospect of getting allowances compared to those in the opposition camps.
Whispers have been heard that “Shhh, we take the money, but our votes are secrets!” So many Barisan Nasional (BN) candidates shouldn’t be overconfident, except for secure and unbeatable candidates like Datuk Hajiji Hj Noor in Sulaman. But on the flip side, parties like Warisan which has boasted of “oceans of people” (selautan manusia) attending its ceramahs may also find out that, in many areas, ceramah attendances do not necessarily translated to votes.
Many expect that long-standing YBs who have been to heights of their careers will at last see their political demises in this election. Most newbies too will fall way short of the glory of victory. New parties which are heavily alleged to be sponsored by BN, and had put up their candidates simply for the purpose of completing the quorum (to appear to be able to form the government) will likely meet their ends as well, even including that of their presidents and other senior leaders.
In the Tuaran parliamentary constituency and in the state seats within it, there have been some interesting developments. The Sulaman area has not had any dramatic incidents due to Hajiji’s invincibility, but in the Tuaran parliamentary area, the tussle for the PKR candidacy had been quite dramatic with Rajimit Gunong (who had lobbied to become candidate since the last two years or so) getting the cold shoulder from Wan Azizah and PKR state chief Christina Liew) with the choice of the much younger Chrisnadia Sinam.
Rajimit’s frustration and disappointment were too much to bear, leading him to join UPKO, much to the gladness of Datuk Seri Panglima Wilfred Madius Tangau who is rumoured to be possibly on shaky ground. Tangau won the last election mostly due to votes from the Bajau-majority Sulaman area and much less from the Dusun-majority areas of Kiulu and Tamparuli.
Tangau enjoyed another bounty with the switching of Lesaya L Sorudim, (Datuk Seri Panglima Wilfred Bumburing’s long-time press secretary) and his five followers, from PCS to UPKO, also due to frustration over not being chosen to contest under the PCS ticket and sheer unhappiness with the choice of Gaibin Ransoi to contest the Kiulu seat.
Sindin Ranggangon, another senior PCS leader who was appointed to lead Ransoi’s campaign, had also thrown in the towel and left PCS, leaving the PCS Kiulu campaign in a shambles!
Kiulu is even more interesting with the entry of the greenhorn JoAnna Henley Rampas as Warisan choice, sidelining the lobbying Kiulu PKR leader, Richard Libun Adou.
In a recent statement Adou had accused state PKR chief Christina Liew of being weak and not in touch with the feelings on the ground, hence making the “big blunder” of surrendering Kiulu to Warisan.
PCS is also facing a poor prospect of winning Tuaran parliamentary seat with Kalakau Untol as the candidate. Kalakau had once won Tuaran and was subsequently appointed as a federal deputy minister, but he is now seen more as one whose popularity had long waned. But the biggest worry for PCS is the high possibility of its president losing the Tamparuli seat due to many fators.
It’s been widely talked about, too, that the best chance for victory in Kiulu is possibly Terence Sinti who is carrying the STAR banner. The reason for this observation is the said unpopularity of Warisan among the mostly Dusun voters there, the serious break in the PCS and PKR camp, and the suspected break in the PBS camp due to the anger in the group led by former YB and division head Louis Rampas who wanted his ‘horse’ to take over Johniston Bangkuai.
Whether he really switched to supporting Jo-Anna, his niece, and weakening PBS in the process is not clear. In this scenario Terence Sinti, for all we know, may turn out to be Kiulu’s new YB.
The biggest question is of course whether the Pakatan Harapan in the Peninsula will be able to unseat Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s BN. If the many polls and mega-size ceramah turnouts are anything to go by, the BN is due for an ignominious end, no thanks to all the scandals, GST and other leadership issues, not the least of which is now long-faded appeals of MCA and MIC.
On the other hand the Sabah BN is believed by some observers to be the state’s winner due to strength of funding, even with reduced majority votes. If that happens then Sabah may end up becoming an opposition state, and making the state BN victory a hollow one.
While most Momogun political observers have been decrying the lack of unity among Momogun leaders who would rather form their respective parties than to form a strong anti-BN coalition, the case of the Gabungan Sabah (GS) is an exception. It had called for unity among the local parties, and managed to unite five parties, but PCS left after having been duped by Warisan.
PCS failed in its attempt to realise a grand alliance, eventually quarrelling with Warisan (after being provoked into enmity by the latter). At a late stage it found a small bit of consolation by coalescing with Henrynus Amin’s Anak Negeri in a futile move which was too little too late.
An unexpected development in the coalition is the case of one member, STAR accidentally put up a candidate against Harapan Rakyat in N.1 Banggi (but later corrected the error by withdrawing). But Banggi still has two GS candidates due to the decision of PPRS to put up its candidate too, as it had done in other areas.
A dent no doubt but gladly, GS had not had a serious backlash and appears to be making good inroads in many areas. A plus point enjoyed by GS springs from the track record of Datuk Dr Jeffrey Kitingan who people still look up to for his struggle for Sabah rights which goes back to the 1980s.
He is also widely recognised and admired to be the one leader who had innovated many political issues from fighting for the 20 Points to the present shares of the state’s oil and gas, 40 percent of state revenues, the other enshrined entitlements for Sabah in the Federal constitution and in the Malaysia Agreement 1963, the IGC Reports, Malaya’s agenda, the idea of local parties to rule Sabah with the “Sabah for Sabahans” slogan.
All these revelations had awakened frustration in the Sabahans’ mindset that even the other opposition parties have unashamedly copied them as part of their manifestoes.
STAR’s president is highly favoured to triumph over his elder brother, Tan Sri Datuk Seri Pairin Kitingan, in Tambunan, not anything due to the latter’s ineptitude but due to his age and having reneged on his vow to retire after the 13th general election.
But will Sabah oppositions, each having insufficient seats to form a post-BN state government, be forced to negotiate for a coalition? We will know soon enough. For today until midnight, it’s time to grit your teeth and flinch your knuckles in intense suspense you will remember for the rest of your life!