BN leads GE14 race — survey

KUALA LUMPUR: Barisan Nasional (BN) is leading the 14th General Election as Malaysians vote today.

Merdeka Center yesterday predicted that BN is ahead of the Pakatan Harapan (PH) pact by 17 seats, but with 37 federal parliamentary seats still too close to call.

In its latest findings, compiled as of noon yesterday, BN is estimated to have 100 safe seats in the bag, while PH is expected to have 83 safe seats. PAS is predicted to be left only two parliamentary safe seats.

However, another 37 seats, a majority of them in Peninsular Malaysia, will be a toss-up within the margin of error of three per cent, the pollster said.

Out of the safe seats prediction, PH is expected to win more seats than BN in the Peninsular Malaysia alone, with 76 seats in the bag compared to BN’s 62 seats.

PH is also leading in popular votes among all the three main players this elections- their measure of the popular vote now stands at 43.4 percent.

BN’s popular support has dipped further from the 2013 elections with only 37.3 percent, with PAS having 19.3 percent of support.

Malay support remains divided between PH and PAS, with BN commanding 44 percent Malay popular votes. Chinese support has reached an all-time high of 84.2 percent for PH, while they are also leading in terms of Indian support, as they are estimated to have 56.5 percent Indian popular vote for the polls.

The pollster predicts that PAS’ ability to retain one-quarter of the Malay vote would enable BN to prevail in the election.

“The high number of marginal seats implies that voter turnout will be a critical factor in determining the outcome of many seats on election day,” it said.

The survey was carried out throughout campaigning period between April 28 to May 8, involving 1,579 voters.

Independent research firm Ilham Centre yesterday said PH could secure about 100 out of 165 parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia.

In addition to Penang and Selangor, its executive director Hisomudin Bakar said PH’s chances of winning Johor are also very high.

At the parliamentary level, he said PH can comfortably win 77 parliamentary seats, while BN could probably retain 56 seats.

As for PAS, he said only seven seats — mainly in the east coast — would go to the Islamist party.

“Assuming there is a tough fight in some seats, PH could win more than 100 parliamentary seats to take over Putrajaya.

“As for states, Johor is likely to go to PH, while we will see a close fight between PH and BN in Kedah and Perak,” he said in a statement.

He said seats with about 75 per cent Malay majority are no longer BN’s safe seats because of the influence of Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and his Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM).

“This strategy has also changed the theory of a three-cornered fight that was previously seen as a benefit to BN.

“The strength of Dr Mahathir’s stature and PPBM is seen as enough to attract Malay votes,” he said.

Even attacks made against the former prime minister, Hisomudin said, were seen as an advantage for Dr Mahathir and his coalition.

These attacks, including attacking Dr Mahathir’s health and body, he added, had in fact increased the former’s popularity.

“This also includes the decision to ban PPBM’s logo … and the ability to get (former Cabinet ministers) Tan Sri Rafidah Aziz, Tan Sri Rais Yatim, and Tun Daim Zainuddin onboard,” he said.

Like in Johor, Hisomudin explained that the people were not angry with Umno, but were just unhappy with Datuk Seri Najib Razak and the attacks against Dr Mahathir.

“This has made people to pity Dr Mahathir and inadvertently given Pakatan free publicity,” he said.

Another reason why PH could win this election, Hisomudin said, was because the bulk of voters was around the age of 39.

He added that this group of people were among those who participated in the Reformasi movement supporting Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim in 1999 and thus, could be the determining factor in deciding who wins today.

Hisomudin pointed that although PH lost to PAS and BN in the conventional political campaign such as erecting flags and banners, the coalition has, however, successfully executed a series of mega ceramah that attracted extraordinary turnouts.

Hisomudin said his team had monitored 165 parliamentary constituencies for over a month to collect this data.

His team, he said, had conducted the research on a micro-level and covered all localities.