Sudan hard-won deal defuses threat of ‘slide into chaos’

A hard-won deal between Sudan’s ruling generals and protest leaders has averted a slide into chaos or even civil war but many questions remain about its implementation, analysts say.

Under the accord, signed Sunday after mediation by the African Union and Ethiopia, a civilian-majority sovereign council will lead Sudan through a transitional period of three years.

“The agreement is not the most ideal but it is better than no deal at all,” said Khaled al-Tijani, a Sudanese analyst and editor-in-chief of the Elaf newspaper.

“Sudan could have slid into chaos or maybe a civil war which makes this deal balanced and rational.”

The country has been roiled by political turmoil since mass protests erupted in December against veteran leader Omar al-Bashir, and the generals who ousted him months later.

The signing of the constitutional declaration on Sunday followed protracted talks that were repeatedly interrupted by violence including a deadly crackdown on a sit-in outside the army headquarters in Khartoum.

The deal is “a reflection of the balance of forces,” said Magdi al-Gizouli, analyst at the Rift Valley Institute.

Still, many are eyeing it with scepticism, given that it is “a compromise between contenders with often diametrically opposed interests,” he added.

The accord’s implementation “is critically dependent on the goodwill” of the army and the protest alliance, Gizouli said.

The declaration places Sudan’s spy agency, which was last month renamed the General Intelligence Services, under the sovereign council and the executive authorities.

It does not, however, outline how the shared responsibility would work, analysts noted.

The agency, formerly known as the National Intelligence and Security Service, was used by Bashir as a tool to crush dissent, and also carried out a sweeping crackdown on the anti-Bashir street protests.

This is “an example of the formal compromises that were whisked through to avert coming to terms with challenging issues,” said Gizouli.

Especially “without authority over the budget of these forces and their composition it is not immediately clear how they can be disciplined into a democratic framework,” he added.

There are also questions about the implications of the deal for the feared paramilitaries of the Rapid Support Forces.

The protest movement has largely blamed the RSF for a crackdown on a sit-in outside army headquarters in Khartoum on June 3.

At least 127 people were killed on that day alone, according to doctors close to the protest movement, who say the violence has cost more than 250 lives since December.

The declaration says the RSF will report to the armed forces’ general command, while an existing law governing the force will regulate its relationship with the executive authority. — AFP