Reality check: Covid-19 will still be around in 2021

Firstly, is the global supply related speedbumps as previously articulated. HLIB Research

KUALA LUMPUR: In spite of the heightening vaccine optimism, analysts believes it is necessary to have a reality check reminder that Covid-19 will very much still be around in 2021.

While the research arm of Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd (HLIB Research) was optimistic on a vaccine reaching Malaysian shores next year, it felt that the return to normalcy will be a gradual one rather than a swift 180 degree turn for several reasons.

“Firstly, is the global supply related speedbumps as previously articulated.

“Secondly, getting domestic regulatory approval will also take time; the local health regulator, National Pharmaceutical Regulatory Agency (NPRA), takes 120 working days to evaluate a new drug granted under priority review,” HLIB Research said.

“It was also reported that, hypothetically speaking, even if a vaccine was available now in Malaysia, it will still roughly take nine months for people to start getting vaccinated.

“Thirdly, as earlier explained, Malaysia’s remaining vaccine supply gap (of 40.5 per cent of population) will likely have to come from China.”

In this regard, the research arm did not discount the possibility of Sino-vaccines facing hiccups in getting the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval, be it due to actual scientific reasons or “geopolitical frictions”.

HLIB Research also opined that on the vaccine demand side, people may choose to ‘wait and see’ before getting jabbed.

It said that this was due to perception issue given the speed at which the vaccine was developed (the fastest vaccine developed prior to this was for mumps which took four years), Pfizer and Moderna’s vaccines being based on synthetic messenger RNA (mRNA) technology that has never once been used in an FDA-approved drug and the spread of influential (but scientifically unfounded) ‘antivaxxer’ propaganda on social media.

“With vaccine optimism rife, it perhaps necessary to have a reality check reminder that Covid-19 will very much, still be around in 2021.

“The current third wave is showing no signs of tapering, and assuming a symmetrically shaped pandemic curve, it is may only subside to ‘Recovery Movement Control Order (RMCO) levels’ (that is, consistently below 50 daily cases) around mid-March at earliest.”

“With the initial vaccine supply prioritised for front-liners, elderly (age over 65) and high risk groups, the bulk of Malaysians (that is, 80.6 per cent by our estimates) will likely still have to contend living in this ‘new normal’ for 2021.”

Overall, based on the assumptions of agreed vaccine delivery schedule by Pfizer, equal quarterly delivery by COVAX and one quarter time gap between vaccine delivery and immunisation, HLIB Research gathered that Malaysia could achieve a Covid-19 vaccination rate of 20.4 per cent by end-2021.