Trudeau’s future on the line as Canadians vote
OTTAWA: Canadian elections headed for a photo finish Monday with liberal prime minister Justin Trudeau, who is seeking a third term, threatened by a strong challenge from rookie conservative leader Erin O’Toole.
Trudeau called the snap election hoping to parlay a smooth Covid-19 vaccine rollout — among the best in the world — into a new mandate to steer the nation’s pandemic exit, without having to rely on opposition party support to pass his agenda.
But the contest, after a bumpy five weeks of campaigning, appears set for a repeat of the close 2019 general election that resulted in the one-time golden boy of Canadian politics clinging to power, yet losing his majority in parliament.
A sudden surge in Covid-19 cases led by the Delta variant late in the campaign, after the lifting of most public health measures this summer, has also thrown a wrench into the works.
At 49, Trudeau has faced tougher bouts and come out unscathed.
But after six years in power, his administration is showing signs of fatigue, and it’s been an uphill battle for him to convince Canadians to stick with his Liberals after falling short of high expectations set in his 2015 landslide win.
“The main ballot box question at the start of this campaign was whether the Liberals deserved to have a majority government,” said Daniel Beland, a politics professor at McGill University in Montreal. “But now the question is whether they deserve to stay in power.”
Going into the final stretch, the two main political parties that ruled Canada since its 1867 confederation were neck and neck with about 31 per cent of voting intentions each and four smaller factions nipping at their heels.
Voting across Canada’s six time zones was scheduled to start in the Atlantic island province of Newfoundland at 8:30am and wrap up in westernmost British Columbia at 7pm.
An estimated 27 million Canadians are eligible to cast a ballot to select 338 members of Parliament. To keep his job, Trudeau’s Liberals must win a plurality of seats and take at least 170 for a majority.
Due to the pandemic, a significant number of mail-in ballots (1.2 million) are expected, which could mean the results of the election may not be known Monday evening.
Pollster and former political strategist Tim Powers advised not counting Trudeau out. “I still think Justin Trudeau will win a minority government,” he said.
“But is that a win for him?” he added, suggesting Trudeau may be turfed as leader if the Liberals fare poorly at the ballot box.