China swings back to trade surplus in April, analysts skeptical of real growth

BEIJING: China swung back to trade surplus in April after posting a rare deficit the previous month, official data showed yesterday but analysts cautioned the better-than- expected figures may not reflect reality.

The world’s second-largest economy recorded an US$ 18.2 billion trade surplus last month, Customs said in a statement, higher than the median forecast of US$ 15.6 billion in a poll of 12 economists by Dow Jones Newswires.

April imports increased 16.8 per cent year on year to US$ 168.9 billion, Customs said, while exports rose 14.7 per cent to US$ 187.1 billion.

In March, the country had posted a deficit of US$ 880 million.

With the eurozone mired in a debt crisis and US growth still unsteady, many hope that the Chinese economy can be a driver of a global recovery.

But statistics have painted a mixed picture for it in recent months.

Economists were sceptical about the trade figures, suggesting they were driven by capital inflows rather than the effects of a rebound in the real economy.

“We believe the strong trade growth is not indicative of a growth recovery,” said Zhang Zhiwei, a Hong Kong-based economist with Nomura International, said in a research note.

Importers and exporters might have overstated their business to seek to evade Chinese government controls on capital movements and channel funds into the country, he said.

Chinese officials vowed earlier this week to clamp down on misreporting, and Zhang said ‘trade growth will likely slow’ in future months as a result.

Royal Bank of Scotland economist Louis Kuijs estimated China’s exports rose only 5.7 per cent year on year in April after adjusting for discrepancies between data from China and figures from the importing markets.

“Subdued actual export growth in April points to sluggish global demand and the impact of (yuan) exchange rate appreciation,” he said in a report. — AFP