Game of Numbers

THE protracted impasse between Sarawak Progressive Democratic Party (SPDP) and its breakaway faction Parti Tenaga Rakyat ( Teras) has taken a new twist following Chief Minister Datuk Patinggi Tan Sri AdenanSatem’s decision to visit the three strongholds – Pakan, Marudi and Tasik Biru – of the two rival parties in the hope of seeing for himself which party could garner more support.

With wit and wisdom, however, he has opted to visit these three areas on different days. In the case of Marudi and Tasik Biru, he has wisely decided to call at each constituency on two consecutive days to have a personal feel of the pulse on the ground.

In an earlier visit to Pakan on March 21, he attended an SPDP- organised ‘ Leader Meets People’ session where some 4,000 supporters reportedly turned up at the Pakan Bazaar community hall to welcome him. There was a heightened sense of expectancy at the gathering that he would announce Teras president Tan Sri William Mawan as a direct BN candidate. But the denouement did not play out as most people would have expected. Adenan did not make announcement then and was expected to visit Pakan again on March 27.

The sizeable turnout at the SPDP event was disputed by Teras, which claimed the actual number present was only about half of that claimed by SPDP as the hall itself could accommodate only about 2,000 people at any one time.

Teras Pakan deputy chairman Tuai Rumah Sedau Empali called the SPDP claim ‘ preposterous,’ insisting half of those present were outsiders. A Teras source went as far as to allege SPDP appeared to have doubled the figure.

“The case is similar to the event held in Bintulu last year when SPDP claimed it managed to organise a very successful Chinese New Year Open House with about was 50,000 turning up, when the actual number was only about 5,000,” the source said.

According to the latest Election Commission (EC) voters statistics, Pakan constituency has 10,351 registered voters – about 1,000 more since the last state election in April 2011 where Mawan polled 3,938 votes to win with a majority of 1,197 in a straight fight against now defunct SNAP’s Jamal Abdullah @ Tedong Gunda.

Possible ‘hitungtubuh’

In the ‘Game of Numbers’, the two feuding parties are projecting the best scenarios for themselves in the three hot seats – Pakan, Marudi and Tasik Biru – but all the same, they will have to closely monitor and scrutinise the situation on the ground amidst a clutch of well-placed intelligence agencies such as Jasa ( Special Affairs Department), the police special branch and the military intelligence unit.

And of course, knowing how Adenan operates, a source close to him opines the Chief Minister will have his own source to verify the facts for him, pointing out that in the in the worst case scenario, he will just ‘hitungtubuh’ ( head counting).

“He definitely has his own source. Of course, he will also gather all the information from various intelligence agencies. Then, he will make up his mind – based on winnability – as to who will use the ‘Dacing’ (scale) symbol,” the source added.

In Marudi constituency, the incumbent Datuk Sylvester Entri Muran ( Teras) is facing stiff competition from SPDP’s Datu Dr Penguang Manggil. At a function, held recently by Entri with Adenan in attendance, the turnout was put at 10,000. At another function held by Penguang at Marudi Bazaar, the crowd were said to be at least 20,000- strong. However, a Teras source disputed the figure, saying the actual number was only 8,000.

In the last state election, Entri polled 4,578 votes to win the Marudi seat with a 3,202-votes majority in a four- corner fight.

And finally, the chief minister will make a trip to Bau twice at the end of this month. He is expected to address the Teras- sponsored event at Redeems in Singai, featuring its candidate and incumbent Datuk Peter Nansian Ngusie on March 28 (Monday), and a similar function, organised by SPDP for its nominated candidate Dato Henry Harry Jinep, at the Bau Civic Centre, on March 30 ( Wednesday).

Nansian successfully defended his Tasik Biru seat with a majority of 2,072 votes in a three- corner fight in the last state election.

It is learnt that Adenan has decided to go and see for himself the realities on the ground amidst conflicting reports as to the popularity of the rival factions in the three hot seats. Each side is just as adamant as the other in claiming to be the ‘favourite son’ of the electorate.

As a former journalist with the original Sarawak Tribune in the 1960’s, Adenan, undoubtedly, does not hold with input of news or information based on hearsay, and is, thus, adhering to the adage that ‘seeing is believing.’ What he will be looking for in the reports he gets are rock-solid elements of the six pillars of journalism – the 5Ws and 1H. The chief minister will not want to be taken for a ride by any side.

As a lawyer and seasoned legislator, Adenan is well-known as a political strategist, having been through the electoral mill on a number of occasions in the past. And today as BN commander-inchief for the coming 11th state election, he, surely, will not want to waste time listening to hearsay or second-hand reports, but will instead be open to first-hand information on all the 82 seats before finalising the BN candidate list by the end of the month.

Analysing what he is doing, it seems he is leaving nothing to chance by making it a point to go down to the ground and reach out to the grassroots as he has set a high expectation of winning at least 70 out of the 82 seats this time around. And with the positive vibes from the Chinese community, especially through his well- received 51 initiatives that have touched the lives of all Sarawakians, he, surely, will want to secure as big a mandate as possible.

The challenge is for both SPDP and Teras to come up with the necessary numbers in the three hot seats to ensure only the best are picked for ‘Adenan Team’ and also put to rest the ongoing SPDP-Teras political sabrerattling, at least in these three seats– considered among the most difficult for Adenan to decide as it involves one full minister and two assistant ministers, who happen to be from Teras.

At the end of it all, it boils down to the ‘Game of Numbers’ in the true spirit of democracy where every vote counts.