Asia leads in the nuclear new build
BEING the biggest continent in the world, comprising 50 independent countries, Asia is experiencing extremely rapid industrialization and population growth and this has resulted in a surge for energy demand. And buoyed by concern regarding environmental degradation by current fossil fuels and volatility in fossil fuel price, the nuclear option has been chosen by many countries in Asia with several more countries seriously considering it. KUALA LUMPUR: In January 2016, World Nuclear Association (WNA) in its report on Asia’s Nuclear Energy Growth had reported that in East through to South Asia there are 128 operable nuclear power reactors.
Out of this number 40 are under construction and there are firm plans to build a further 90, and that many more are proposed. The greatest growth in nuclear generation is expected in China, South Korea and India.
On 6th March 2017, slightly a year later, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) published the regional distribution of nuclear power plants, including those operational, undergoing long term shut down as well as presently under construction.
There are now 449 nuclear power reactor operators operational in 30 countries (with 110 nuclear reactors in AsiaFar East and 27 in Asia-Middle east and South) operational and sixty under construction in 15 countries. Asia in the nuclear new build Of the 60 nuclear power reactors under construction worldwide, China leads the pack with 20 nuclear reactors under construction followed by 7 in Russia and 5 in India. United Arab Emirates (UAE) which is the first newcomer country to introduce nuclear power started construction of its first reactor, Barakah Unit 1 (BNPP-1) in 2012, 27 years after China had started construction of its first reactor in 1985. Presently, Barakah is the largest nuclear new build construction site in the world and the only one to have four identical reactors being simultaneously built.
With the current nuclear construction worldwide dominated by large number of nuclear reactor construction in Asia, the region is trailblazing in the nuclear new build.
Market size for nuclear new build till 2030
The World Nuclear Supply Chain: Outlook 2030 published by the World Nuclear Association (WNA) in 2014, has forecasted 295 new NPPs under construction or planned (being 50 in OECD countries, 118 in China, 42 in former Soviet Union and 21 in India).
The total value of planned nuclear build up to 2030 is US$1.2 trillion, with estimated value of US$545 billion for international procurement.
Market size for new build in North America with five nuclear reactors under construction and 7 being planned is estimated to be US$90 billion whilst for Europe with 4 nuclear reactors under construction and 20 planned, the market size is projected to be US$190 billion.
Market size for new build in Asia with 56 reactors under construction, 196 being planned is estimated to be US$786 billion; with US$92 billion in West Asia, with 2 nuclear power reactors under construction and 16 being planned, US$65 billion in South Asia, with 7 nuclear reactors under construction and 18 planned, US$31 billion in South East Asia, with 6 nuclear reactors being planned and US$545 billion in East Asia with 36 nuclear reactors under construction and 125* being planned (* based on WNA’s reference case)
Future of global nuclear power – a tectonic shift to Asia
Apart from nuclear reactor construction taking place primarily in Asia, nuclear reactor manufacturing is shifting to Asia, with South Korea and China emerging as important new international exporters of nuclear power reactors. We are thus witnessing a tectonic shift in many aspects of nuclear power to Asia. Is Asia prepared to lead? And is there a role for Malaysia?
Thus stakeholders including government, policy makers, professionals, public and press (media) in Asia are actively engaging in discussions and deliberations on the way forward for the planning, introduction and implementation of nuclear power programme (NPP).
Stakeholder communications, involvement and engagement
The IAEA has outlined that 19 issues including stakeholder involvement must be addressed to support a safe and successful implementation of a nuclear power programme.
It is thus within this context that regular discussions, deliberations and engagement with stakeholders of a nuclear power programme (NPP) are being organised, some at the national level through interagency meetings and interactions with members from selected ministries, agencies and others; sitting to discuss on strategies and plans whilst others are organized at international levels via International Organisations such as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) of the OECD, World Nuclear Association (WNA), and countries already with an advanced nuclear power programme.
Additionally private companies in recognising the interest of countries in planning and introducing nuclear power programmes are also actively organising Nuclear Related Conferences to offer platforms for discussions among international and national nuclear communities.
These include Conferences with focus in Asia such as recently concluded Nuclear Power Asia 2017 in Kuala Lumpur and Asia Nuclear Business Platform (ANBP) in Beijing, China in May 2017.
Nancy Shukri’s message regarding INIR mission
Datuk Seri Hajah Nancy Shukri, Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department in charge of Nuclear Power Planning, in her Opening Address at Nuclear Power Asia 2017 had shared with the audience that the final report of the Integrated Nuclear Infrastructure Review (INIR) Mission Phase 1, presented by Mr Dohee Hahn, Director of the Division of Nuclear Power, Department of Nuclear Energy, IAEA will be tabled to the Cabinet by next week.
The minister remarked that the 3-phase assessment, initiated by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) concluded that Malaysia is thoroughly prepared and has developed a considerable base of knowledge to make an informed decision about introducing nuclear power.
Additionally the INIR Mission had offered five recommendations and 10 suggestions and identified 4 good practices that may benefit other countries.
IAEA keynote address at NPA 2017
He remarked that growth is expected to increase at a rate lower than before Fukushima accident and that we have to take into account the large capacity required as many nuclear reactors were going into decommissioning. He further elaborated that the largest growth for nuclear capacity is expected in Asia and shared that a large number of newcomer countries have indicated their interest to have nuclear power in their energy mix and thus assistance from the IAEA to newcomer countries were in high demand.
He explained that the INIR Mission helps countries to assess their own infrastructure ranging from National Commitment to Waste Management.
Since 2009, the IAEA has conducted 22 INIR Mission in 16 countries upon the request by their government and that in 2016 the IAEA had conducted the INIR Mission for Malaysia.
The findings for the INIR Mission Phase 1 has been concluded and the report presented to Nancy.
Engaging Malaysian stakeholders in the consideration of nuclear power
Ms Sheriffah Noor Khamseah Al-Idid, Innovation & Nuclear Advocate, Alumni, Imperial College, University of London, United Kingdom And Panel Member on the Session on Stakeholder Engagement–public, scientific societies and other related Ministries at Nuclear Power Asia 2017 articulated that public awareness, public engagement and public acceptance is vital for the introduction and implementation of a Nuclear Power Programme.
However, more efforts must be made to communicate, involve and engage other equally important stakeholders including politicians, government, policy makers and the press.
Sheriffah had shared from her experience and involvement with the MSC that International Consultant McKinsie & Co had conducted a study for Malaysia and reported that if Malaysia continues to just invest in manufacturing, it will not be able to achieve the objectives of VISION 2020, bringing Malaysian average income to that of a ‘fully developed nation’ level. McKinsie had proposed and helped the government develop a blueprint for Malaysia to invest in ICT.
She spotlightlighted that as economic benefit was the compelling factor for investment in this new sector, this had received great support from the government.
It is thus within this context that a shift is critical in the approach as well as content of the message to be conveyed to the Government regarding potentials for investing in nuclear power.
In addition to sharing with government the benefits, amongst others, in terms of achieving energy security and reducing environment degradation, there is an urgent need to provide government key statistics and information relating to socioeconomic benefits of nuclear power for the people and country.
Sheriffah shared that the French and Japanese experience where economic factors had compelled the government to invest and reinvest in nuclear power accordingly.
Arising from the oil crisis of the 1970s which had resulted in oil price to quadruple, France which was heavily reliant on oil had made a strategic decision to turn to and invest in nuclear power. Now France has the highest electricity contribution from nuclear – nearly 80 per cent.
However, the most recent case, after Fukushima accident in March 2011 and understanding the Japanese public fear regarding nuclear, the Japanese government had decided to stop nuclear power in Japan.
However, without nuclear power, the government had to increase the import of fossil fuels which caused severe financial burden and negatively impacted the country’s economy and exacerbated the increase in carbon emission.
Hence, the Japanese government had to begin efforts to restart several of its nuclear power reactors. Last but not least, Sheriffah had also advocated for stakeholder engagement initiatives to be further developed with media, as media is vital and key for conveying news and information relating to issues regarding nuclear energy and nuclear programme.
The present scenario involves media spotlighting on negative news of nuclear, the Business-Not as Usual of the nuclear industry. Sheriffah had recommended for greater efforts to be made to share important information with the media in particular the Business as Usual mode of nuclear business covering job creation, increased employment, regional and economic growth of regions hosting the nuclear power plant. Also visits have to be organised for media representatives to witness the safe and peaceful operations of nuclear power plants and various benefits enjoyed by the local communities and the country which had invested in nuclear power. — Bernama