No Brexit deal would cost Scotland £12.7bln — Study

EDINBURGH: Scotland’s economy would shrink by 8.5 percent if Britain leaves the EU without a deal, Scottish leader Nicola Sturgeon warned yesterday as she pushed for Britain to stay in the European single market.

“There is no option short of EU membership that is as good as being in the EU,” First Minister Sturgeon said as she presented an analysis of the economic impact of possible future ties with the bloc.

“This is about degrees of what does the least damage to our economy,” she told journalists in the Scottish capital Edinburgh.

According to the new analysis, Scotland’s GDP would plunge 8.5 per cent by 2030 – or 12.7 billion pounds ( US$ 17.5 billion) – if no deal is reached with Brussels and Britain has to fall back on World Trade Organisation rules.

This compares to a 6.1 per cent ( 9.0 bln) fall if a free trade accord is signed with the bloc, and 2.7 per cent (4.0 bln) drop if the UK joins the European Economic Area and therefore stays part of the single market.

Sturgeon said the impact study served as “compelling” evidence that Britain should remain part of the single market, if it is not possible to stay an EU member as her Scottish National Party would like. Scotland backed EU membership by 62 perc ent in the June 2016 referendum, compared to the overall British vote on 52 per cent in favour of Brexit.