Oil dips, supply issues in focus

TOKYO: Oil prices edged lower yesterday after international benchmark Brent hit a fresh fivemonth high in the previous session, but concerns over global supplies kept prices well supported.

Brent crude oil futures were at US$ 71.46 a barrel at 0233 GMT, down nine cents, or 0.1 per cent, from their last close, having hit their highest since Nov 12 on Friday at US$ 71.87.

US West Texas Intermediate ( WTI) crude futures were at US$ 63.63 per barrel, down 26 cents, or 0.4 per cent, from their last settlement.

“I would expect oil to trade in a relatively tight band around US$ 70 per for the time being,” said Virendra Chauhan, oil analyst at Energy Aspects in Singapore, pointing to mixed signals on supply from the US and the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and its allies.

The head of Libya’s National Oil Corp warned on Friday that renewed fighting could wipe out crude production in the country.

Opec and its allies meet in June to decide whether to continue withholding supply.

Opec, Russia and other producers, are reducing output by 1.2 million barrels per day ( bpd) from Jan 1 for six months.

“Leading edge indicators on US supply suggest activity levels are stepping up which is supportive for strong production growth in the second half,” said Chauhan

But at the same time,

I would expect oil to trade in a relatively tight band around US$70 per for the time being. Virendra Chauhan, oil analyst at Energy Aspects in Singapore

“murmurings from various ministers of the Opec+ pact suggest supply from the group will not be ramped up pre- emptively as per last summer,” he said.

Opec’s de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, is considered keen to keep cutting, but sources within the group said it could raise output from July if disruptions continue elsewhere.

Russia’s Finance Minister Anton Siluanov was quoted by the Tass news agency as saying on Saturday that Russia and Opec may decide to boost production to fight for market share with the US but this would push oil prices as low as US$ 40 per barrel.

US energy companies last week increased the number of oil rigs operating for a second week in a row, bringing the total count to 833, General Electric Co’s Baker Hughes energy services firm said in its closely followed report on Friday.

The rig count fell for the past four months as independent exploration and production companies cut spending on new drilling to focus on earnings growth instead of increased output. — Reuters