‘Knives Out’ sequel box-office sales will be the biggest mystery

WHEN Netflix announced in early October that it was putting the sequel to the popular 2019 film Knives Out in theatres for a limited run, cinema executives cheered.

“I have been working for 4 years to be able to say this!” tweeted Adam Aron, chief executive officer of theater giant AMC Entertainment Holdings. “Success here could lead to more Netflix movies at AMC.”

But just how well the film, starring Daniel Craig as the honey-voiced detective Benoit Blanc, does in theatres will be something of an enigma. Netflix isn’t expected to release ticket sales for “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery,” as most studios do. ComScore, the regular distributor of box-office data, won’t put out numbers if Netflix doesn’t.

In a disappointment to cinema executives, Netflix Co-Chief Executive Officer Ted Sarandos told investors on an October earnings call that he viewed the Glass Onion theatrical release as just a way to build buzz before its streaming debut.

“We make our movies for our members, and we really want them to watch them on Netflix,” he said.

AMC’s Aron, a frequent voice on social media, has lately been talking up the next Avatar film, which doesn’t come out until next month.

“Glass Onion” is expected to generate up to US$15 million in ticket sales over the five-day weekend that started Nov 23, according to Boxoffice Pro, which projects it will land in third place behind Walt Disney Co.’s “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” now in its third week, and Disney’s “Strange World,” a new animated picture.

In “Glass Onion,” Blanc investigates a new mystery in Greece. The film has received glowing critical reviews, but is playing in only about 600 US locations, while “Strange World” will debut in over 4,100. “Glass Onion” is the first Netflix movie to be shown at the three biggest US chains, AMC, Cineworld Group’s Regal Cinemas and Cinemark Holdings.

A confluence of events led to the deal. Some Netflix executives have been agitating to distribute more movies theatrically, possibly boosting their popularity. And cinemas starved for content no longer insist that films play in their auditoriums exclusively for months, a condition Netflix has long found unacceptable.