Making a case for the Asian century
a superb, richly informative take on the future of global politics.
WITH the world currently focused on the sinking ship that is Brexit, along with Donald Trump’s isolationist America, a sleeping giant is rising to the east.
As this century nears its 20th year, you’d be forgiven for thinking that the West continues to shape the narrative on the world’s socioeconomic development. But then, the jingoistic press of Britain and the United States do tend to neglect looking past their own front yard as they sculpt their stories.
In reality, the 21st century is being moulded by events taking place across China, Delhi, Russia, Central Asia and the Middle East. That’s the argument put forward in the latest book from bestselling author and Oxford historian, Peter Frankopan. The New Silk Roads sets its stall on a compelling case that this is “The Asian Century”.
Of course, the old line of Western dominance at its end has been sung more times than any line from a Frank Sinatra hit. What’s different here, though, is Frankopan’s nuanced detailing of China’s economic progress: He presents an argument that’s both difficult to refute and makes one wonder if Asia hasn’t gripped the century already, even at this early stage.
In the early 2000s, China’s GDP was approximately 40% of that of the United States. Fewer than 20 years later, it rises towards 120% and shows no sign of slowing.
Frankopan writes, “The shift of global GDP from the developed economies of the West to those of the East has been breathtaking in both scale and speed. According to some estimates, thanks to sharp rises in oil prices, the countries of the Middle East (and North Africa) will earn more than $210 billion [RM855.8bil] more in 2018-19 than they did in the previous 12 months – a windfall of enviable proportions.”
This shift of global GDP hasn’t gone unnoticed by big business. While Frankopan describes the progress of several developing countries in his book – making for a richly informative read on global affairs – China plays the lead role in his latest offering.
The American coffee chain, Starbucks, is just one example of a big-time player looking to ride on the coattails of China’s rise. By 2021, Starbucks aims to have 2,000 of its stores in the world’s most populous country. The coffee giant announced its decision in 2017. If it achieves that goal, it would mean a new Starbucks opening every day.
Besides the economic developments along the Silk Roads continuing to move apace, Frankopan argues that the road ahead – particularly for Western liberal ideals – will be far from smooth. He warns that “a new world order is emerging in Asia and it’s not a free one”.
It doesn’t help that the current President of the United States seems unable to move past his reality TV schtick, treating global politics as though the world should be marching to the beat of his drum.
As the Oxford historian observes, Trump has been on the offensive against China since his days running as a presidential candidate, warning Americans that the Asian nation is out to abuse the United States “beyond belief”. On the European Union, Trump insists that the European collective is as bad as China, “just smaller, OK?”
With the West in disarray over political instability and lack of strong leadership, the path is cleared for Eastern giants such as China to court the world and develop its socioeconomic influence pretty much uncontested.
As the Asian century unfolds, it will surely bring considerable challenges to Trump’s America and whoever leads the charge for Britain after Mrs May’s inevitable departure following Brexit.
With Trump’s policies doing much to hinder American’s progress, Frankopan points to the warming relations between China, Russia and Iran as cause for concern for both Europe and the United States. As America becomes increasingly insular, and the EU navigates stormy seas, Beijing will surely enjoy the West having lost its way and relish the prospect of being at the helm of the global stage in this new era.