Sweden didn’t lock down, but economy to plunge

Officials says focus has always been on public health

STOCKHOLM: Unlike most countries, Sweden never locked down during the coronavirus pandemic, largely keeping businesses operating, but the economy appears to be taking a hard hit nonetheless.

Under the Scandinavian country’s controversial approach to the virus, cafes, bars, restaurants and most businesses remained open, as did schools for under-16s, with people urged to follow social distancing and hygiene guidelines.

Whatever hope there may have been that this policy would soften the economic blow now seems dashed. “As in most of the world, there will be a record decline for the Swedish economy in second quarter,” SEB bank economist Olle Holmgren said.

A rebound was likely in the latter part of the year, but “we expect it to take a long time before the situation normalises,” he told AFP.

To be fair, Swedish officials insist their strategy was always aimed at public health, and never specifically at saving the economy.

The idea was to make sure hospitals could keep pace with the outbreak and protect the elderly and at-risk groups.

Sweden has succeeded at the former, but admitted failure at the latter, with more than three-quarters of virus deaths occurring among nursing home residents and those receiving care at home.

“When we have decided what measures to take to stop the virus from spreading, we have not had any economic considerations. We have followed the advice of our (public health) experts on this issue,” Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson told reporters in late May.

Still, authorities acknowledge that keeping businesses open was also part of a broader public health consideration, as high unemployment and a weak economy typically lead to poorer public health.

Sweden, a country of 10.3 million, had reported 4,639 Covid-19 deaths as of last Friday. That gives it one of the world’s highest virus mortality rates, with 459.3 deaths per million inhabitants – four times more than neighbouring Denmark and 10 times more than Norway, which both imposed stricter confinement measures.

At first Sweden’s export-heavy economy seemed to be doing okay, with GDP actually growing by 0.1% in the first quarter.

But now the country is expected to follow the same path as most of Europe, with its economy shrinking for the full-year 2020 and unemployment soaring.

In April, the government predicted GDP would contract by 4% in 2020, compared to its January forecast of 1.1% growth.

While the European Commission has forecast a Swedish contraction of 6.1% (compared

“As in most of the world, there will be a record decline for the Swedish economy in the second quarter.” Olle Holmgren

to -6.5% for Germany and -7.7% for the eurozone), the outlook presented by the Swedish central bank is even more dire – it anticipates a GDP decline of up to 10%.

Some economists see Swedish growth rebounding as early as the second half of 2020, but the finance minister has warned things could get worse before they get better.

Before the crisis, Sweden’s labour market was in good shape, with strong job creation and a declining unemployment rate.

Now, the government expects a jobless rate of 9% for 2020 and 2021, compared to 6.8% in 2019. It sees growth of 3.5% in 2021.

Sweden’s sharp downturn is largely explained by its dependence on exports, which account for around 50% of GDP.

“70% of Swedish exports go to the EU. Shutdowns in Germany, the UK and so on are expected to hit Swedish exports considerably,” the government said.

In March, some of the country’s biggest companies, such as automaker Volvo Cars and truckmaker Scania, halted production in Sweden.