India’s CPO import duty cut will boost demand

PETALING JAYA: India’s cut in crude palm oil (CPO) import duty to 27.5% will make CPO more attractive, as the commodity is set to regain some of the market shares it lost to sunflower and soybean oils this year, says Maybank Kim Eng.

It said most of the benefits will likely accrue to Indonesian origin, as Malaysia’s CPO export duty exemption will expire on Dec 31, 2020.

“We believe the main beneficiary will be Indonesian CPO origin. It will likely regain a bigger market share at the expense of Malaysian CPO origin once Malaysia’s CPO export duty exemption ends on Dec 31, 2020.

“Recall that Malaysia’s government had exempted the export duty of CPO and CPKO (crude palm kernel oil) between July and December 2020 after Covid-19 decimated demand at the onset of the pandemic,” it said.

Citing the Plantation Industries and Commodities Ministry, Maybank Kim Eng said Malaysia’s government currently had no plans to extend the tax exemption beyond Dec 31, 2020.

The research firm said a quicker stockpile build-up will hasten the seasonal CPO price correction by mid-2021. “The unintended consequence will be a quicker build-up in Malaysia’s MPOB stockpile in 2021 which the market tracks for price discovery,” it said.

Come Jan 1, 2021, Maybank Kim Eng expects Malaysia’s CPO export to attract more or less an 8% export duty (or about RM270 per tonne) assuming the CPO price stays at RM3,430 per tonne (as at 26 Nov).

At the same price level, Indonesia’s CPO export duty will be just US$18 per tonne or RM75 a tonne.

Furthermore, the Malaysian growers had a general reluctance to pay the CPO export duty in the past, ie, not exporting CPO.