RIVALS IN POWER
For 15 years, China has enjoyed relatively calm and harmonious relationships between its two most powerful leaders. But it may soon come to an end.
FOR 15 years, China has enjoyed relatively calm and harmonious relationships between its two most powerful leaders – the president and the premier. But it may soon come to an end.
Unlike their predecessors, incoming president Xi Jinping, 59, and premier Li Keqiang, 57, are rivals turned partners.
And observers fear that the residual tension between them could hobble the pair from working together.
“They have no shared experiences at all. We have not seen them working together,” said analyst Bo Zhiyue from Singapore’s East Asian Institute.
Both men were gunning for the top job until Xi edged ahead in 2007, when he was selected as heir apparent to Hu Jintao.
Li, from a rival faction under Hu’s patronage, had to settle for the premiership.
Such rivalry is a sharp contrast from the last two pairs of Chinese leaders.
Hu, for instance, was a clear choice for leadership of the Communist Party. His premier, Wen Jiabao, was never a contender for the top job.
It was the same for the earlier pairing of Jiang Zemin and Zhu Rongji. By the time Zhu was appointed premier in 1998, Jiang had been leader of the country for nearly a decade. The hierarchy was clear.
As observer Steve Tsang from the University of Nottingham said: “A Hu-Wen type of partnership does not look particularly likely in the Xi-Li pairing.”
It helps to have friendly relations between the president and the premier – possibly the most important partnership in China.
On paper, the division of labour is clear. The president, who is usually also the general secretary of the Communist Party, takes care of party affairs – politics in short.
The premier is head of the State Council, China’s Cabinet, and is supposed to manage economic affairs.
But in reality, the party interferes in everything. “So, if the president and the premier do not get along well, there’s potential for policy conflict,” said observer Zhang Jian from Peking University.
Clashes were evident in the three leadership pairings before Jiang and Zhu.
In his memoirs, former premier Zhao Ziyang wrote of how he clashed with general secretary Hu Yaobang in the early 1980s over economic issues. This is despite the pair sharing similar liberal political leanings.
“When he (Hu) went to the provinces for inspection tours, he often criticised or made comments that implied criticism of the economic work being conducted by the State Council,” wrote Zhao in Prisoner Of The State.
“Yaobang and I had differing opinions on how to manage economic affairs. I did not promote unbridled development, I opposed large-scale infrastructure projects and I believed in proceeding methodically.
“Yaobang was different: He was ideologically liberal and carefree.”
The split between the No. 1 and No. 2 worsened after Hu Yaobang was purged. Zhao replaced him as party chief and clashed with the new premier Li Peng, leading to catastrophic consequences. Their differences culminated in the Tiananmen incident in 1989, with Zhao advocating reconciliation with the protesting students while Li, a hardliner, pushed for a violent crackdown.
When Zhao was away on a trip to North Korea amid the crisis, Li took the chance to heighten tensions, convincing paramount leader Deng Xiaoping that a military intervention was necessary.
Zhao blamed the tragedy on Li. As he recalled, his No. 2 “used resistance and sabotage to ensure that efforts to resolve the student demonstrations on the basis of democracy and law would fail, with the intention of looking for an excuse to crush the student demonstrations using violent means”.
But even after Zhao was sacked, the Communist Party could not entirely end the tensions between its top two men.
New party chief Jiang Zemin struggled to control premier Li, who felt his new boss was a lightweight.
Jiang had just arrived in Beijing from Shanghai in mid-1989 and, unlike Li, had few connections in the capital.
“Li Peng did not take Jiang seriously because Li felt that he was more senior,” said Dr Bo. “For the first two years of their partnership, Li was taking the lead and Jiang had no choice but to follow. Deng was upset about it.”
But through all three pairings in the 1980s, there was Deng to play referee and “moderate” the relationships, said Professor Tsang.
Now the fear is that such a fraught partnership may reappear with Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang, minus a strongman adjudicator. “I would argue the Xi-Li chemistry will be similar to that of Zhao-Li Peng, or Jiang-Li Peng, who were among different factions,” said Prof Zhang.
The new pair do not have much in common. Xi is a princeling son of a former leader and spent most of his career in the prosperous coastal provinces.
Li made his mark in the Communist Youth League, the power base of President Hu, and worked in poorer provinces.
Opposites may attract but if the previous pairings of contrasting backgrounds are indicative, the new partnership could prove difficult.
The bright spot is that Li is without a firm base now at the top echelons of the party, potentially making him more eager to go along with Xi than oppose him.
Six members of the new seven-man Politburo Standing Committee, including Xi, are closer to Jiang than Hu.
Only Li is seen as a protege of Hu, whose power has been further weakened by his retirement as commander-in-chief of the Chinese military.
With such underwhelming support from his mentor and his new peers, the lone ranger Li may have no choice but to blend in and play ball with his new boss.
And even if he should find the courage and conviction to go up against Xi, it may not be all bad. It can be a form of checks and balances, said Dr Bo.
Many historians bemoan how communist China’s first pairing of Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai led to disastrous upheavals because Zhou, who was the premier, was powerless to challenge Mao.
And rivals may surprise by working well together, said political analyst Wang Jianwei from the University of Macau.
“Looks like Obama and Clinton worked well together in the same administration,” he quipped. — The Straits Times/Asia News Network