N. Korea too far advanced on nukes

Weapons programme developing beyond effective sanctions, say experts

SEOUL: North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme is developing beyond the international community’s ability to rein it in with effective sanctions and export restrictions, regional analysts and nuclear experts warned.

While opinion on the current level of the nuclear threat posed by North Korea was divided, a conference organised by the Asan Institute think-tank in Seoul showed consensus on the urgent need for new strategies to keep the threat in check.

Even as Pyongyang’s closest ally China announced an export ban to the North of technologies and goods with dual-use potential, experts questioned whether North Korea’s weapons programme hadn’t already moved beyond its earlier dependence on external equipment and know-how.

“They are not at the start of this process any more. They’ve been at it a long time,” said Park Jiyoung, director of the Asan Institute’s Science and Technology Policy Centre.

“It’s clearly likely that the North will try to go beyond its current nuclear capability ... (and) export controls can’t stop that development.”

North Korea has carried out three nuclear tests – the last and most powerful in February this year.

Satellite images suggest it has restarted a plutonium reactor at its main Yongbyon nuclear complex and doubled its uranium enrichment capacity at the same site.

A new study by Washingtonbased nuclear proliferation expert Joshua Pollack and nuclear scientist Scott Kemp of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology further suggests that North Korea is capable of indigenously producing the key components of the gas centrifuges needed to enrich uranium.

“In which case, the current policy based on export controls, sanctions and interdictions has probably reached its limit of effectiveness,” Pollack told the Seoul conference.

“It means we cannot easily stop the expansion of the enrichment programme ... or maybe even detect its expansion,” he added.

Uranium enrichment carries a far smaller footprint than plutonium and can be carried out using centrifuge cascades in relatively small buildings that give off no heat.

The possibility that North Korea has, or will have, undeclared uranium enrichmentfacilities squirrelledaway would undermine the credibility of any future aid-for-denuclearisation deal with Pyongyang.

As a result, the international community’s best strategy, Pollack argued, might be to focus its efforts on preventing a fourth nuclear test.

Li Bin, a physicist and nuclear policy expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said North Korea could be just one test shy of making the crucial leap to miniaturisation – the ability to fit a nuclear warhead on a missile.

“If they can do more nuclear tests, maybe just one more, they would be able to have a small and more reliable device,” Li said.

Asked what steps the international community could take to prevent a determined Pyongyang pursuing a fourth test, Li paused before replying: “I have no idea.” — AFP