The Trump World Order: Get ready for a wild ride
GUESSING what the world will look like in the Trump era is a risky game. A President Donald Trump ( pic) has no governing track record, and his campaign was full of contradicting policies and statements that make only one thing certain: Unpredictability.
Surprise is an element that Trump relishes both in deal-making and, already as PEOTUS, in policy. America and the world need to get ready for a wild ride.
During the first 100 days, it is safe to expect a series of surprise moves. On the one hand, his opponents will question his presidency’s legitimacy, conflicts of interest and seeming disregard for governing institutions. On the other hand, startling shifts will also come from a White House manically pitching and tweeting new domestic and foreign policy directions.
Leaving aside domestic considerations, the world must anticipate and understand the potentially dramatic geopolitical shifts coming in the new Trump World Order. Trying to divine Trump’s new foreign policy priorities might be a fool’s errand, but there are enough data points to guess at his global game of building and strengthening alternate alliances.
Russia, of course, tops the list. Trump will try to put President Barack Obama’s foreign policy - one that tried to balance America’s interests and values - into Chapter 11 and start anew.
Defending and promoting liberal democratic values and human rights has been an important part of modern US foreign policy. Early indications are that values promotion will drop to the bottom of the foreign policy agenda and take a backseat to America’s commercial and strategic material interests, and that those interests are actively being redefined (and retweeted) as the nation races toward Inauguration Day. Values will play some role, of course, but only insofar as they cost nothing or can be leveraged as negotiating deal points.
If a nation wants better trade conditions or visa rules with the US, well, then concerns about that nation’s human rights abuses or authoritarian regime could be overlooked or dealt away for a better commercial deal or investment advantage. Expect this to be part of the new diplomacy and future alliance structure.
Big picture, however, is where everything is about to flip. America’s superpower status is about to be overhauled into a strategic role as the world’s leading petropower.
Energy will be leveraged to define how Trump and his team select global alliances and regional adversaries. Global energy security could be the simple and singular operating principle that allows him to partner with Russia and contain China.
Such a bold and risky approach is fraught with danger and could easily backfire, but the elements for pursuing such an “energy first” policy are already falling into place. The Trump-Putin bromance will allow America to become Russia’s BFF, especially if Moscow is slowly willing to turn its back on Beijing.
Combine the energy pressure with more independence-minded Taiwan, a slowly reinvigorating and muscular Japan, a potentially re-stabilised South Korea, and an Americareoriented Philippines and the stage will be set for a full Chinese containment policy that aggressively reinforces an understanding that Beijing’s fake islands and forward military posture will be addressed forcefully.
Yes, a dangerous game of chicken is shaping up during this lame duck period. And Russia is key to the strategy.
The recent expulsions of Russian diplomats and spies, serious election (and ongoing) hacking and the GOP’s traditional antipathy toward Moscow only gives Trump and his Secretary of State nominee, energy executive Rex Tillerson, more leverage for a better deal.