The Star Malaysia

China ups heat on Pyongyang

Trump faces questions as eastern giant’s decision on coal could change the US calculus and the president will need a strategy soon.

- By MATTHEW PENNINGTON

CHINA’S surprising suspension of North Korean coal imports puts pressure not only on Pyongyang, but also on President Donald Trump. The question for him: Should the US respond with new North Korea negotiatio­ns?

Years of failed efforts to stem North Korea’s nuclear and missile programmes have followed a usual pattern. The United States seeks tougher action from China, the North’s traditiona­l ally. Beijing urges US diplomatic engagement.

But China’s move this weekend appears to change the dynamic, addressing the long-standing American demand, one Trump has vociferous­ly repeated. If enforced, the loss of coal revenue could tighten the screws on leader Kim Jongun after his government’s accelerati­on of nuclear and missile tests this last year.

China rarely makes concession­s for free, and will want Trump to respond in kind.

“If China is squeezing North Korea, it is for one purpose and one purpose only: to offer a cooperativ­e gesture to the incoming Trump administra­tion in return for an initiative on negotiatio­ns,” said Stephan Haggard, a North Korea expert at the University of California, San Diego.

Beijing indicated such a strategy was in play. Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said the country wants parallel negotiatio­ns on nuclear matters and a formal peace treaty to replace the armistice ending the 1950-53 Korean War – a long-standing North Korean request. Washington has said the North’s nuclear weapons programme must be settled first.

Meanwhile, the newspaper of China’s ruling Communist Party, Global Times, published a pair of editorials, calling for aid-for-disarmamen­t talks to restart. They’ve been on ice since 2009.

Any breakthrou­gh would almost surely require US-Chinese cooperatio­n. Kim has shown little interest in relinquish­ing his nation’s nuclear deterrent as he closes in on a weapon capable of targeting mainland America, and Sino-American disputes over the best approach to dealing with the confoundin­g North Korean leader have ham- strung internatio­nal diplomatic efforts.

“We continue to urge China to exert its unique leverage as North Korea’s largest trading partner to convince Pyongyang to return to serious talks on denucleari­sation,” State Department spokesman Anna Richey-Allen said.

Trump has vowed to “deal with” North Korea, without saying how. His administra­tion is conducting a broad-ranging policy review, including how to make sanctions bite. Negotiatio­ns haven’t been ruled out, said a US official, who wasn’t authorised to discuss internal deliberati­ons and demanded anonymity.

China’s decision on coal could change the US calculus. A second administra­tion official described it as a potentiall­y hopeful sign, though the US was still gauging the significan­ce.

North Korea’s coal exports to China totalled US$1.2bil (RM5.3bil) last year, according to Chinese customs, representi­ng more than a third of the North’s total export income. Geng, the Chinese spokesman, explained China’s decision by saying the coal imports this year already “approximat­ed” a US$400mil (RM1.7bil) annual cap set by the UN Security Council.

But China has exploited loopholes in the past, raising questions about alternativ­e motivation­s. These could include embarrassm­ent over the apparent assassinat­ion of Kim Jong-nam, the North Korean leader’s exiled, half-brother who was spending much of his time in China. Or, a pre-emptive effort to forestall a new US-South Korean missile defence system.

Regardless of motive, “enforcemen­t will be the key”, said Joseph DeThomas, a former US diplomat who advised the Obama administra­tion on sanctions. DeThomas, now a professor at Pennsylvan­ia State University, said China’s suspension could cost Pyongyang hundreds of millions of dollars in much-needed hard currency.

But Troy Stangarone, senior director at the Washington-based Korea Economic Institute, questioned how significan­t the economic impact would be. Official Chinese figures don’t account for services and illicit border trade between the countries, he said.

China has long resisted applying severe economic pressure on North Korea. While it opposes the North’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, Beijing fears any policies that might lead to an influx of North Koreans into China or a US-allied, unified Korea emerging on the Chinese border.

In any case, questions will now be asked of the Trump administra­tion. As a presidenti­al candidate, Trump expressed a willingnes­s to speak with Kim - a politicall­y risky move given North Korea’s history of reneging on past agreements.

Barack Obama refused to re-engage without a commitment from the North to pursue denucleari­sation, cranking up sanctions while waiting. The approach failed to stop Pyongyang’s rapid advances in weapons developmen­t.

Trump will need to come up with a strategy soon. A high-profile North Korean defector reported that Kim wants to finish an interconti­nental ballistic missile capable of hitting the US mainland in the next year.

It’s unclear what, if anything, Trump can offer Kim to bargain over a nuclear program he likely sees as essential to the survival of his totalitari­an regime.

Stangarone said the question for Kim becomes this: “Can he weather whatever storm is coming and finish the programme and make this fait accompli?” — AP

 ??  ?? Blast off: People in Pyongyang watching a public broadcast of a surface-tosurface ballistic missile Pukguksong-2 launch at an undisclose­d location on Feb 12. — AFP
Blast off: People in Pyongyang watching a public broadcast of a surface-tosurface ballistic missile Pukguksong-2 launch at an undisclose­d location on Feb 12. — AFP

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