South-East Asians hoping for better times

Professionals in the region are confident that the economic outlook in South-East Asia will be better this time around.

BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN: An online survey, titled State of Southeast Asia 2019, conducted between Nov 18 and Dec 5, 2018 to seek the views of Southeast Asians on regional affairs, found that of the 55.4% of the respondents who hold a positive economic outlook for the region outweighed the 21.3% who felt that the 10 Asean member countries would experience a moderate or sharp downturn this year.

The most bullish sentiments are found in Laos (86.2%), Cambodia (66.4%) and Brunei (64.4%).

Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand were found to be more bearish, according to the survey by the Asia Studies Centre at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, that conducted the survey.

The survey covered many influential people in Southeast Asian countries.

The survey used the purposive sampling method, canvassing views from a total of 1,008 Southeast Asians who are regional experts and stakeholders from the policy, research, business, civil society, and media communities.

As such, the results of this survey are not meant to be representative.

Rather, it aims to present a general view of prevailing attitudes among those in a position to inform or influence policy on regional political, economic and social issues and concerns.

The academe and think-tank community made up the largest group of respondents at 42%.

Nearly one third of the respondents (32.9%) were from the government, inter-governmental and international organisation cluster, which provides a rare opportunity to access perspectives from these often closed circles.

The business and finance community (10.4%), civil society and non-govermental organisation (8%), and the media (6.7%) made up the remaining 25.1% respondents.

The 1,008 respondents were drawn from all 10 Asean member states to ensure that the survey accurately reflects the regional view.

The highest responses for the survey came from Myanmar (16.9%), followed by Malaysia (14.5%), Singapore (12.7%), Vietnam (12.3%), Indonesia (11.4%), Thailand (11.4%), the Philippines (11%), Brunei Darussalam (4.5%), Laos (2.9%) and Cambodia (2.4%).

The overall mood of the region is one of pessimism with 42.5% of the respondents expecting the region to encounter a period of uncertainty and a small percentage (2.2%) harbouring concerns of a turbulent year ahead.

On the other hand, 32.3% see the region as either stable (30.3%) or very stable (2%).

Nearly a quarter of the respondents view the fundamentals of the region as unchanged.

The most optimistic is Laos with 68.9% viewing the region to be stable or very stable while Singaporeans are the most pessimistic, with 66.9% expecting 2019 to be marked by uncertainties and even turbulence.