Looking for the winning formula

A survey in Peninsular Malaysia suggests that despite the popularity of individual politicians, the key to winning the next General Election could actually be the correct alliance of parties.

WHO is the most popular politician in Malaysia?

a) Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad b) Datuk Seri Najib Razak c) Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin d) Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim

ACCORDING to a survey in Peninsular Malaysia conducted by Universiti Teknologi Malaysia politics and governance research group head Dr Mazlan Ali, it is Prime Minister and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia president Muhyiddin.

“Muhyiddin is well-liked by all segments of the population. He is as popular as Pak Lah (Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi) when he became PM in 2003,” he said.

Mazlan said Muhyiddin’s personal popularity is 80% with Malays, about 55% with Chinese and about 50% with Indians.

“They like him because of his popular government policies such as Bantuan Prihatin Nasional and the six-month loan moratorium during the MCO (movement control order),” he said.

Mazlan said he would need to do another survey to find out if the Prime Minister would still be popular after the moratorium is lifted.

However, the political analyst said the Prime Minister’s popularity seems to drop when it comes to his political platform. Muhyiddin’s approval rating then is about 60% among Malays, about 40% with Chinese and about 45% for Indians.

“My conclusion is it drops because the rakyat does not see Muhyiddin’s Perikatan Nasional government as solid. They feel that it can fall at any time,” he said.

Mazlan explained that at the time his survey was conducted, the July 13 vote to boot Parliament

Speaker Tan Sri Mohamad Ariff Md Yusof had not happened yet.

“There was still a guessing game about how many MPs would support Muhyiddin’s motion. Dr Mahathir had claimed then that he had the numbers to bring down the Prime Minister,” he said.

The rakyat also saw the Perikatan government as goyang (shaky), as Bersatu’s partners were not seen as supporting it fully, Mazlan said.

The public perceived that there were also a faction in Umno – led by its senior leaders such as deputy president Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan, vice president Datuk Seri Mohamed Khaled Nordin and Youth chief Datuk Dr Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki – that did not support Muhyiddin as Prime Minister.

Gabungan Parti Sarawak, which consists of Parti Pesaka Bumiputra Bersatu (PBB), Sarawak United Peoples Party (SUPP), Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS) and Progressive Democratic Party (PDP), had a wait-and-see attitude towards Perikatan.

The public also saw PAS as having the potential of acting unexpectedly. “It could be with Muhyiddin and it could be with Dr Mahathir if he formed a new coalition,” he said.

Based on his survey, Mazlan said Mahathir’s approval rating with Malaysians is about 35% while Anwar’s is 60% among non-Malays and not more than 35% among Malays.

“The bickering between Mahathir and Anwar on who will be Prime Minister if the Opposition gains power has a negative effect on their support. The rakyat is fed up with it,” he said.

Najib’s popularity among the Malays is about 30% but it drops to 18% among the Malays on the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia. His popularity among other races is below 11%.

“The Malays who support Najib are from rural areas. His approval rating among the non-Malays is affected by the 1MDB issue,” he said.

In his research, Mazlan found that if Bersatu president Muhyiddin and PKR president Anwar combined, they could be a force to be reckoned with in two years. From the numbers the political analyst crunched, he construes that the rakyat would like it if the two leaders cooperated.

“If Anwar doesn’t collaborate with Muhyiddin, he can’t be PM. Anwar’s popularity among Malays is low. Only non-Malays support him,” he said.

Mazlan contended that if Anwar picked Muhyiddin as an ally, they might get support from the rakyat.

“Anwar is seen as a reformist and Muhyiddin’s government is seen as having integrity as he has not put many MPs with court cases in government and given them GLC (government-linked companies) positions,” he said.

“If Muhyiddin and Bersatu combined with Anwar and PKR plus DAP – with a softer side that the Malays don’t find threatening – and Amanah, they could win GE15 if it was held in two years’ time. The two leaders could get support from the Malays through their reforms and a Malay agenda.

“There is a group of Malays who are ‘participant voters’. They support the Malay agenda but they are not like the subject voters (who are more inclined towards Muafakat Nasional),” he said.

Mazlan said about 30% of Malays are subject voters while half of the community are participant voters and their numbers are growing.

He added that 65% of the Malay voters in GE15 would be those aged between 18 years old and 40 years old.

However, if GE15 was held now, Muhyiddin and Anwar can’t win against Muafakat Nasional and Barisan Nasional.

“It will give the message that it is back to a Pakatan Harapan government and the Malays won’t support the coalition led by Muhyiddin and Anwar. The Chinese and Indian votes will not be enough to win the election,” he said.

Mazlan said Malay support for Umno and PAS is currently high. His past surveys showed that the popularity of Muafakat Nasional (the Umno and PAS alliance) was about 80% among the Malays in Peninsular Malaysia, even in urbanised Klang Valley.

“The Malay and Muslim agendas that Muafakat Nasional is fighting for is effective in winning over the Malays. But in two years, we don’t know. Their Malay support might get less,” he said.

With the High Court finding Najib guilty and Umno deciding not to be part of the Perikatan coalition, Mazlan said the Bersatu president has to be prepared for a new alliance.

When push comes to shove, will Muhyiddin pick Anwar as a new ally?