‘Split vote advantage unclear’
Experts: Hard to say who will benefit from multi-sided fights
A LARGE political field forming ahead of the 16th Sabah state election is set to see multi-cornered fights that are likely to see splits in votes and make prediction difficult.
With slightly over half a dozen parties emerging and with former political heavyweights in the Opposition camp alone, analysts said it would be difficult to gauge the impact on votes by both the incumbent Warisan Plus and its main Opposition alliance made up of Barisan Nasional, Sabah Bersatu, Parti Bersatu Sabah and Sabah STAR.
Local political observer Rahezzal Shah said it would be very difficult to predict how the personality-led Opposition parties would impact the political fight between Warisan and the loose coalition.
Currently, these are Parti Cinta Sabah, led by former foreign minister Datuk Seri Anifah Aman, the Liberal Democratic Party led by former chief minister Tan Sri Chong Kah Kiat and the possibility of another former chief minister Tan Sri Mohd Harris Salleh and former Dewan Rakyat Speaker Tan Sri Pandikar Amin Mulia making a comeback via Usno.
Rahezzal, Sabah’s UiTM political science lecturer, said there was no indication that these “third force” leaders were planning any pact at the moment and their involvement could be considered spoilers.
“Anifah seems to indicate that Parti Cinta Sabah will go alone instead of forming a pact with any political party. After much has been said about it, they will be the spoilers in this case,” he said.
Rahezzal pointed out however that during the 2018 election, Sabah STAR was also dubbed a spoiler but not only did it manage to clinch two seats, it ended up as a kingmaker when Warisan and Barisan were tied with 29 seats each in the 60-member state assembly.
In the last state election, there were only two straight fights between then-ruling Barisan and Warisan, with multi-cornered contests of three to four aspirants in most seats.
“But if you look at the results, Barisan managed to secure nine seats due to the split in votes while Warisan won six and STAR managed to get two,” he said, explaining that it would be difficult to assess in cases of multi-cornered fights as to who would benefit.
In 2018, Barisan retained Pitas, Matunggong, Tamparuli, Kiulu,
Klias, Kundasang, Paginatan, Balung and Sebatik on vote splits while Warisan won Bangi, Petagas, Liawan, Melalap, Tungku and Kunak. Sabah STAR took Tambunan and Bingkor.
“The data doesn’t lie. It would be foolish to say multi-cornered fights would give an advantage to either Warisan or Barisan partners,” said Rahezzal.
Warisan, he said, still managed to win the six seats in the last election, pointing out that despite the Opposition votes being split against Barisan, the party still benefited.
“Applying this logic to Barisan, who is the Opposition now, there will be issues with having a united fight against Warisan,” he added.
On Chong’s entry into the race, the impact would need to be studied, said Rahezzal, as there was no strong indication the Chinese were moving away from Pakatan Harapan, a partner of Warisan Plus.