There’s no silver bullet solution for Myanmar
SINCE the February military coup, the situation in Myanmar has deteriorated rapidly. An expert at a recent UN Security Council briefing warned that Myanmar is “on the brink of state failure”, with death rates resulting from indiscriminate military killings having shot up.
Unlike any time before, the street protesters are emboldened and encouraged by office workers going on strike in support of the cause.
Myanmar’s security apparatus is large, consisting of an army of 400,000 fighters most of whom are ethnic Bamar Buddhists, another 80,000 police as well as an unknown number of state intelligence service members.
The army remains largely united and is likely to remain so in the short term although defections are appearing. It must be noted, however, that these defections should not be seen as a sign of any kind. Military defections have happened from time to time, such as after the pro-democracy uprisings in 1988 and during the Saffron revolution in 2007.
Nevertheless, the civil disobedience movement’s effectiveness is unprecedented and spreading across key ministries. Due to the large volume of people taking to the streets, important institutions, including banks, have been closed due to lack of staff, causing financial chaos.
International support to resolve the crisis is insignificant and more vocal than effective. There is recognition of Chinese and Russian strategic interests and UN veto power, hence the lack of a frontal approach.
Western countries and academics have instead opted for a more dynamic Asean posture and involvement even though they are aware that Asean will not adequately meet the challenge.
Asean is divided and ineffective. On the one hand, member states like Cambodia and Thailand have dismissed the coup as a domestic matter to be resolved by the people of Myanmar themselves. Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and, after some wavering, the Philippines have expressed concern over the coup and urged restraint and a peaceful resolution to the unfolding crisis.
International and domestic expectations of what Asean is capable of remain low. One scholar pointed out that Asean states remained more concerned with creating a unified position against external pressure than on developing a single policy towards Myanmar.
There is a dire imperative for Asean to move away from its suffocating non-interference self. Cambodia is a textbook example of how Asean kept silent and foreign forces intervened. There is no silver bullet, much as many people concerned and caring for Myanmar wish it. Patience is necessary.
TAN SRI SYED HAMID ALBAR
Chairman Advisory Group on Myanmar