Reshaping regional politics in the Middle-east
The swearing in of Iran’s new president, Ebrahim Raisi, comes at a time of growing challenges for the country, whose economy has been crippled by us-led sanctions.
IRAN’S eighth president, Ebrahim Raisi, is the only president who was under sanction by the United States when he was elected on June 19. Voter turnout, at 48.8%, was the lowest ever for a presidential election since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Raisi, who was inaugurated on Tuesday, is considered an ultraconservative Syiah ideologist and a staunch acolyte of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
His victory will have a significant impact on reshaping regional politics in the Middle East and is also the only option left to survive the clerical representative system of rule in Iran.
The tenacity of Iran’s proxy war in the Middle East has made its rivals uncomfortable, especially Israel. Iran-backed groups – Hamas, Huti, Hezbollah – have gained considerable dominance on political and tactical grounds from the regional perspective. Israel and its ally, the United States, have launched an all-out war to curtail the influence and destabilise the institutional strength of Iran.
In this context, the 2021 president polls have a gargantuan importance on how the Islamic Republic will negotiate upcoming challenges.
The Iranian president is second in ranking in the country’s political system; it is the supreme leader who is the only decisive instrumentality of state matters. The presidency does control domestic matters like law and order, the economy, and state schemes.
Raisi replaces Hassan Rouhani, who was seen by the West as a relative moderate. It is Raisi who is the protégé of ultra-conservative Khamenei and trusted crony of the conservative establishment, including its security and intelligence agencies. Under Raisi, the regime will pave the way for controlling and influencing social activities, freedom of women, social media and the press. At present, Khamenei is 80, and if any health issue arises then Raisi would be the perfect successor.
Iran is at a critical juncture of political crisis. Living standards have declined due to the deep economic crisis. US sanctions and mismanagement of the government have crippled the economy. Domestic unrest and dissent are affecting political stability. Foreign actors are deeply engaged in destabilising the country. To eliminate internal and external challenges at this critical moment, the gerrymandered allocation of Guardian Council members was staged to bring up a hardliner like Raisi. The regime will now have absolute control over all the centres of power.
Raisi’s first press briefing after being elected in June was a weathercock for Iran’s foreign policy. This regime will focus on confidence-building with its neighbours and increase the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’s (IRGC) influence over the region. The IRGC has tremendous influence in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Palestinian.
The relationship between Iran and the United States and the European Union is going to be strained. Israel already has expressed deep concern over Raisi’s victory. Another regional rival, Saudi Arabia, has extended an ice-breaking gesture after a secret ministerial-level meeting in Baghdad with Iran.
Saudi Arabia has understood US strategy. The Americans are only interested in the petrodollar, and the recent withdrawal of a US missile system from Saudi Arabia was a reality check for the gulf state. More so, US President Joe Biden’s administration is uncomfortable with Saudi Arabia because of issues such as the Khashoggi murder, human rights violations and the Yemen war.
Russia and China have congratulated Raisi and assured support for Iran’s economy. Turkey has indicated it wants to raise Tehranankara relations to new heights. And Qatar is extending economic vibes.
Syria and Iraq have further expressed their solidarity and connectivity with Iran. Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, India and Pakistan are showing a keen interest in strategic partnerships with the Persian Gulf state.
Oil-rich Iran is also blessed with a long and extensive history of culture and strong traditional values. It has a strong influence over the region in this context. The major religion in the Middle East was reshaped after it met Persian traditions.
Historically, Iran has a strongly conservative society. The IRGC has achieved great success in fighting the so-called Islamic State (IS) group in the Middle East and saved Iranian society from an IS wave.
Iran’s strong cultural heritage has acted as a saviour during various moments of crisis, such as when the country nationalised Anglo-iranian oil companies during the British era and when it dealt with the Arab Spring and IS.
In the past, Iran starkly rejected the idea of a progressive and open society as championed by the Pahlavi monarchy and instituted an Islamic republic with the revolutionary movement in 1979. Nevertheless, the present global political scenario has made an imbroglio in the Middle East.
A stark critic of the West and its criticisms of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Raisi is bent on the enrichment of nuclear power and this has made the political game in this theatre much more complex.
It’s too early to comment on such a mercurial figure. It is time that will dictate the narratives in the Middle East. – The Jakarta Post/asia News Network