GE15 in Johor shaping up to be as unpredictable as the weather
JOHOR BARU: The unpredictable weather has resulted in some minor flooding and the evacuation of more than 50 flood victims in Segamat to date.
The situation is expected to worsen in the coming weeks.
Each year, many areas in Johor get flooded during the monsoon season, with Segamat and Kota Tinggi usually being the worst hit.
The great Johor floods of 2006 and 2007 displaced over 100,000 people statewide.
Another major flood hit the state soon after the Tenang by-election in 2011, displacing almost 50,000 people.
Despite the uncertain weather patterns these days, the 96 candidates vying for 26 parliamentary seats in Johor for the 15th General Election (GE15) have been actively campaigning, rain or shine, to woo the state’s 2.616 million voters since filing their nomination papers on Nov 5.
Just like the state election in March, the parliamentary polls will be a crowded affair with almost 13 political parties contesting, including the three major coalitions: Barisan Nasional, Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan Nasional.
Prior to GE14, Johor had long been regarded as a Barisan “fixed deposit” state.
The political tsunami of 2018 shattered Barisan’s grip on the state as the coalition only managed to hang on to eight seats while Pakatan scooped up 18 seats, including all the five major seats next to Singapore, namely Johor Baru, Iskandar Puteri, Kulai, Pasir Gudang and Tebrau.
But four years later, the scenario is a bit different, especially with the emergence of more political parties and the huge increase in voters by almost 799,000 from 1.817 million in 2018.
Tebrau is the state’s largest constituency with 223,301 voters, while Labis is the state’s smallest with 49,846 voters.
Barisan is hoping for a low voter turnout, similar to the 54% in March, to win big in the state elections, some observers believe.
The Opposition, on the other hand, is going all out to woo outstation and overseas voters to return to vote, hoping that a 70% to 80% voter turnout will turn the tide in their favour.
In GE14, the state had a voter turnout of 74.5%, with Tanjung Piai recording the highest turnout at over 80%.
For GE15, Umno is contesting the lion’s share for Barisan with 17 seats, followed by MCA (eight) and one seat for MIC.
Pakatan’s seat distribution sees PKR contesting in 12 seats, DAP (seven), Amanah (five) and Muda (two).
Bersatu is contesting 20 seats for Perikatan in Johor, while PAS is vying for four and Gerakan is aiming for two.
Barisan is upbeat about winning 16 to 20 seats, but observers are expecting the coalition to pick up a few more from Labis, Sekijang, Segamat, Sri Gading, Simpang Renggam and Ledang.
Both Barisan and Perikatan are eyeing the 73 Felda settlements – a huge voting bloc that can contribute votes to at least 14 parliamentary seats in Johor.
Muar is one seat to watch out for as Barisan is going all out in an attempt to win it back from incumbent and Muda president Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman.
They hope his frosty relationship with the Johor palace when he was a federal minister will be in their favour. Syed Saddiq is facing a three-cornered fight with Barisan and Perikatan candidates.
Another hot seat is Pagoh, where Perikatan chaiman and Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin is defending the seat for the eighth time in a three-cornered fight.
Perikatan is tipped to retain this seat along with the Mersing parliamentary seat.
Simpang Renggam is also a “to-watch” seat where former mentri besar Datuk Seri Hasni Mohammad is facing a four-cornered fight, including against former education minister Dr Maszlee Malik from Pakatan.
Ayer Hitam, where MCA president and incumbent Datuk Seri Dr Wee Ka Siong is contesting, is seeing a three-cornered fight.
Dr Wee, who has held the seat since 2004, is facing Johor DAP vice-chairman Sheikh Umar Bagharib Ali and Perikatan’s Muhammad Syafiq A. Aziz.
It will be interesting to see if Barisan, through MIC treasurer general Tan Sri M. Ramasamy, will manage to recapture the Segamat parliamentary seat after losing it to Pakatan in 2018.
The seat, which is seeing a four-cornered fight in GE15, had been won by MIC since the general election of 1982.
A local politician said his reading of the people’s mood during campaigning saw a difference compared with past elections.
“Even in the 2004 election when Barisan won big nationwide, the mood among voters was rather upbeat and excited. This time, it’s actually worrying,” he said, adding that in-fighting among personalities in both Barisan and the Opposition might affect the outcome.
The coming days will be crucial as all parties, especially the big three (coalitions), will need to show how they are going to tackle issues such as the rising cost of living, the economy, creating job opportunities, and fighting corruption.
GE15 in Johor is shaping up to be as unpredictable as the weather these days.
It will also be interesting to see how many candidates, like in the state elections, will lose their RM10,000 election deposits.