Malay ground hard to read
Gauging which way malay voters will lean is a lot more complicated this time around with a bigger pool to choose from.
A Malay uncle from Seremban was asked who he will vote for in this general election. He smiled – and immediately changed the topic.
A nasi lemak seller in Lembah Pantai was asked the same. He said the Malay supporters would be wearing dark blue T-shirts today. Then, he laughed “but they could be wearing a red T-shirt next”.
It’s becoming hard to read the Malay voters before this general election.
It was a guessing game in the past. Most would either mark the dacing (the Barisan Nasional symbol) or bulan (the PAS moon) but this time, it’s more complicated.
The political parties work very hard to cajole the Malays because they are known for being subtle, and would not outwardly show their political leanings.
Even within close family circles, the Malay voters tend to keep their cards close to their chests.
This time, the Malay voters have plenty to choose from with the emergence Tun Dr Mahathir’s Gerakan Tanah Air (GTA) and Perikatan Nasional.
The Malay vote is largely expected to be fractured into three sides, with Barisan, Perikatan and GTA all trying to get a share – in some 120 Malay majority parliamentary seats.
“In the last election, voters did not have these other options. Now, these parties have aggressively promoted themselves as an alternative to Barisan and Pakatan,” said political analyst Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi of Universiti Malaya.
Another political observer, however, said the Malay voters could repeat the trend they showed in Melaka and Johor.
The Malays have shown their support for Barisan by giving two thirds majority both in Melaka and Johor. Only those who do not want to affiliate themselves with Barisan will choose from either Pakatan or Perikatan.
Barisan swept to 21 out of 28 state seats in Melaka and 40 of the 56 seats in Johor.
Umno, obviously, has a huge vote bank in the Felda settlements, the bedrock of party’s strength.
A Pahang state leader said the party would try to recapture as many Felda seats as possible. Rompin, Bera and Paya Besar in Pahang and Jempol in Negeri Sembilan have a large number of Felda settlers.
The leader expressed confidence that some seats, which were lost at the last general election, would return to the party this time.
In 2018, Barisan won only 26 of the 54 Felda parliamentary seats, compared to 48 in GE13 and 46 in GE12.
In the rural Malay heartlands, especially in the northern states of Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah, many voters are still likely to support candidates who brandish the Malay-centric call, such as fighting for Malay rights and championing Islam.
Political risk analyst Amir Fareed said the division of the Malay votes would see dynamic changes depending on the Malay composition in each constituency.
“The Malay swing will not be uniform across the country,” he said.
Pakatan Harapan, meanwhile, is likely to do well in the urban belt, especially within the Klang Valley and west coast of the peninsula, he said.
Another interesting observation during this election is that the physical campaigning has been reduced with most more active on social media.
The heavy rain and bad weather during the monsoon season could be among the reasons for this as many would not want to come out in large numbers for late-night ceramah.
However, there were those who braved the heavy rain, complete with party shirts, caps and umbrellas. In many cases, the speakers were only preaching to the converted.
Social media platforms have been full of short videos to disseminate plans and campaigns of candidates from Malay parties.
Interesting, even older Malay politicians like Dr Mahathir, that have served for several terms have gone to the platform to woo younger supporters.
More than 21.73 million people are eligible to cast their votes tomorrow. It will be interesting to see where the Malay votes will go.
That enigmatic smile of that uncle from Seremban is indeed hard to decipher.