Who will be Jokowi’s successor?

As political intrigue deepens, Indonesians wait with bated breath for the most unpredictable presidential election in the nation’s history.

LIKE any Indonesian sinetron (TV drama), the contest for the highest post in the nation is full of suspense and intrigue, replete with stories of disloyalty and betrayal. Take the case of two of the candidates, Ganjar Pranowo and Prabowo Subianto.

Imagine the key players behind them – no less than the matriarch of Indonesian politics, Megawati Sukarnoputri, and the current president, Joko Widodo or Jokowi, feuding in the open.

And try to figure out how Anies Rashid Baswedan, the third candidate, is cunningly playing the dark horse as he watches the drama unfold.

Jokowi was backed all the way from his aspiration to become the wali kota (mayor) of Solo to his bid to become the Governor of Jakarta and later the President of Indonesia by the Megawati-led Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). She was even sacrificing her own candidates to give way to Jokowi.

Yet he is not supporting Ganjar the PDI-P candidate. Instead, Jokowi is throwing his support behind Prabowo, who fought him twice in the presidential race in 2014 and 2019. Jokowi’s son Gibran Rakabuming Raka is Prabowo’s running mate as vice-president. Perhaps blood is thicker than politics.

Some say choosing Gibran was a brilliant move by Prabowo. After all, almost half the voters in the third most populous democracy in the world are millennials and Generation Z. But the controversies surrounding Gibran’s eligibility and his personality are now almost affecting Prabowo’s otherwise clear track to the presidency.

Indonesian law stipulates that any candidate for president and vice-president has to be 40 years of age. The Mahkamah Konstitusi (Constitutional Court) held a meeting on Oct 16 last year and decreed that anyone below 40 is eligible to contest for the posts. The condition is that he or she “has served or is serving a position won through a general election, including a regional leader election”.

The decision by the highest court in the land resulted in a firestorm of protest. To add fuel to fire, the head of the court was Anwar Usman, Gibran’s uncle. An honorary council for the Constitutional Court was hastily set up, and it found the decision to be ethically wrong. The head of the court was removed.

However, the decision stays, thus paving the way for Gibran to contest. He is 36 and he has been the mayor of Solo for hardly two years.

Allegations that Jokowi wants to protect his legacy are not without merit. After all, his supporters have attempted to extend Jokowi’s tenure but failed. Postreformasi Constitution allows only two terms for any president.

According to his detractors, he is using his sons – not one, but two of them – for the purpose. His youngest son, Kaesang Pangarep, became the leader of Parti Solidariti Indonesia (PSI) just two days after joining the party. The talk about building “Dinasti Jokowi” is now rampant.

Gibran has his fair share of blunders, thus solidifying his image as immature and incompetent.

Undeniably, social media is key to winning elections these days; yet, for Gibran, he is being vilified mercilessly on the very platforms he should have an advantage in.

To be fair, despite many who believed he would be a sacrificial lamb in the debate held for the vice-presidential candidates late last month, he did remarkably well. He was facing the more experienced politicians, Abdul Muhaimin Iskandar and Mahfud MD (Anies and Ganjar’s running mates respectively). Perhaps the format suited him better than it did the older politicians.

The question is: who will win this time? Anies knew he is the poorest in terms of financial support among the candidates. His political machinery is less formidable compared to that of his competitors. Nine polls conducted not too long after his candidacy was announced put him at a distant third. Prabowogibran was leading in eight; only one poll placed Ganjar-mahfud MD ahead.

But things are changing. He is an immaculate orator, and a man of facts and lots of figures. He approached the campaign like a contrarian that he is – he went down directly to the people.

His “Desak Anies” initiative started as a meet-the-students session. But its popularity compels his people to extend it to farmers, fishermen, religious groups and others.

He is even reaching out to the young via a Tiktok open session, something that even Gibran has not attempted. The road for Anies is long, arduous and almost next to impossible. But the Anies bandwagon is gaining strength by the day.

But who will win? The law stipulates that those contesting must win more than 50% of the votes. Under current circumstances, no one believes that any party will get the required 50% votes in the first round. If that happens, two pairs with the most votes will battle it out in the run-off.

A good example was the 2004 election, where there were five pairs of contestants. The Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono-yusuf Kalla team garnered 33.5%, the highest in the first round. They had to go for the next round, and again, they overwhelmed the Megawati Sukarnoputri-hashim Muzadi team by securing 60.6% of the votes.

Indonesians are holding their breath for the most unpredictable presidential election in the nation’s history. Even the ending of a popular sinetron can’t be this suspenseful!