Solar power is here to stay
ALTHOUGH Solar Impulse 2 (SI2) has been grounded in Hawaii to repair and replace its irreversibly damaged lithium batteries, the purpose of the aircraft’s round-theworld journey has already been achieved – reaffirming solar energy’s potential as a fuel for aeroplanes and by extension, cars, trains and ships.
Powered by 17,000 solar cells during the day and by rechargeable batteries with stored solar energy during the night, Swiss aviator Andre Borschberg’s recordbreaking solo non-stop 118-hour flight from Nagoya, Japan, to Hawaii could be a potential game changer for solar energy.
Admittedly the speed at which SI2 was piloted – averaging 70 kilometres per hour during the 6,500 kilometre flight from Nagoya to Hawaii – was agonisingly slow compared with jet speeds of conventionally-powered planes.
Arguably, it could take decades before solar energy can replace conventional aviation fuel on planes capable of transporting passengers and cargo instead of a single pilot. A fair weather and lightweight plane, the SI2 can’t fly in adverse weather conditions.
Given Malaysia’s depleting reserves of oil and natural gas and its long hours of sunshine throughout the year, Putrajaya should give greater priority to developing all renewable sources of energy, particularly solar power.
As a net exporter of oil and natural gas as well as a major producer of palm oil which can be used as biofuel, Malaysia has a double stake in the energy sector.
Malaysian policy planners shouldn’t be quick to dismiss solar as a marginal energy source. Solar energy has become increasingly cost competitive worldwide. Writing in The Motley Fool, Travis Hoium says solar energy is now past the point of no return.
Another example is the US-led “Shale Revolution”. Describing a revolution as a seismic change that occurs rapidly, upends the status quo and establishes a new order, writing in the Oilpro.com website, Jeff Reed says shale has done all three.
Although shale gas was first extracted in the US in 1825, it took another 150 years for this unconventional energy source to be produced in commercial quantities.
In 1986, the US Energy Department teamed up with private gas companies to undertake the first successful drilling of a horizontal shale well in shale. To boost output, Washington offered tax incentives for unconventional gas from 1980 to 2000.
US output from shale has grown exponentially. In 2010, production of shale oil or light tight oil (LTO) was less than 1 million barrels per day (mbbl/d), Sylvie CornotGandolphe, president of SCG Consulting & Research Associate writes.
Boosted by investments totalling US$129 billion in 2014, high crude oil prices and continuing technological advances, production of LTO in that year surged to nearly 5 mbbl/d last year, CornotGandolphe said.
Comprising 55% of US output, LTO has enabled the US to reduce significantly oil imports, she noted.
Shale suffers one major drawback – extraction costs are high. Depending on the geology, average breakeven prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for shale range from US$55 per barrel (bbl) to US$80/bbl.
Slumping oil prices have prompted US shale operators to slash capital expenditures by a range of 20% to 60% this year and the country’s oil rig count has declined by 56% at end-April from a peak in October 2014. During the same period, LTO output rose by 10% to 5.6 mbbl/d.
Like shale, solar power’s growing use has been equally spectacular. In 2005, global solar installations totalled one gigawatt, a figure that could rise to an expected 55 gigawatts this year. By 2020, installations could triple to 135 gigawatts annually, GTM Research predicts.
Fuelling this growth is the sharp drop in the cost of installing solar in the US. According to GTM Research, the cost of utility-scale solar projects has fallen 67% in the past five years, bringing the cost of solar energy closer to that for conventionally-generated electricity.
Solar power in the US is expected to remain cost competitive even after the investment tax credit slides from 30% to 10% in 2017, Hoium adds.
Recently, First Solar’s chief executive officer, Jim Hughes forecast US$1 per watt for solar energy is achievable in less than two years.
In some countries, solar has reached parity with the market price of electricity. For example,