Europe holds its breath as Italy votes
> Renzi expected to resign if he loses constitutional reform referendum
ROME: Italians started to vote yesterday in a referendum on constitutional reform, which will decide the political future of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, who has promised to resign if he loses.
Financial markets and Europe’s politicians fear victory for the opposition “No” camp could trigger political instability and renewed turmoil for Italy’s battered banks, pushing the eurozone towards a fresh crisis.
Polls opened at 7am (2pm in Malaysia), with about 51 million Italians eligible to vote on Renzi’s plan to drastically reduce the role of the upper house Senate and claw back powers from regional authorities.
With all the opposition parties lined up against the reform, a victory for Renzi would be a surprise and represent an enormous personal triumph for Italy’s youngest prime minister who often appeared to be fighting the campaign single-handed.
All surveys, published in the month before a blackout was imposed on Nov 18, put the “No” camp ahead.
Private polls have continued to be conducted in the last two weeks and bookmakers say “No” remains the clear favourite to win.
However, in the final days of frenetic campaigning Renzi insisted the public mood was changing, focusing his attention on the millions of Italians who said they were undecided.
Pippo Nicosia, a stall-holder at Campo dei Fiori market in Rome, said he would vote “Yes” but had no doubt about the result.
“‘No’ will win, everything will collapse so we might as well all go on holiday.”
Turnout, expected at between 50% and 60%, could be crucial.
Pollsters say lower participation could favour Renzi, as hostility to his reform is strongest among young voters and those in the poor south, segments of the population that often don’t bother to vote.
A turnout above 60% could also make the result more unpredictable, as it would suggest many voters who said they planned to abstain ended up going to the polls.
With bookmakers’ odds suggesting a roughly 75% chance of a win for “No”, speculation is rife on what Renzi will do in the event of defeat.
He is widely expected to resign and has said he will play no role in any unelected, “technical” government, which President Sergio Mattarella may try to put in place.
Some of his allies have urged him to stay in power regardless of the result. – Reuters