Swing factor in GE14

POLITICAL and social analyst Wong Chin Huat says the crux of the 14th general election (GE14) battle is not whether Pakatan Harapan (PH) can win more than 112 parliamentary seats to form the federal government, but whether they can beat Barisan Nasional (BN) in the Peninsular.

If it does, there is a possibility that BN component parties in Sabah and Sarawak may leave BN for PH, he said.

There will be “wholesale” switching of camps in the two states if it does happen. It all depends on Umno’s performance in the Peninsular, he said.

Chinese votes will decide which way the results go in about 35 seats, he was reported by as saying.

For example, if PH garners 95 seats in the Peninsular against 70 by BN, BN component parties in East Malaysia may offer themselves to the higher bidder between PH and BN, Wong said at a forum on GE14 in Penang on Sunday.

In GE13, BN and the Opposition won 85 and 80 seats respectively in the Peninsular.

Wong, head of political and social analysis at Penang Institute, said of the 165 parliamentary seats, 62 (38 held by BN and 24 by PH) are considered “black” seats for BN, meaning BN obtained between 45% and 55% of the votes in the last election.

And out of the 62, Chinese voters account for more than 50% in one seat, 2050% in 34 seats (19 held by BN) and less than 20% in 27 seats (19 held by BN).

Wong said Chinese votes will determine whether BN will lose more than 30 of the “black” seats in GE14, He said the turnout rate of Chinese voters is crucial. If they opt to spoil their votes in frustration, BN may well regain its two-thirds majority.