The math in politics

PARTI Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia’s (PPBM) departure from Pakatan Harapan (PH) has left several PH-led state governments hanging by a thread.

Should PPMB team up with Umno, PAS and other opposition parties to set up a new alliance as speculated, it is almost certain that PH will lose Kedah, Perak, Malacca and Johor, the Chinese press reported yesterday.

As it is, PH has already lost its slim majority in the 36-seat Kedah state assembly without PPBM, as its Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Mukhriz Mahathir can form a more stable new government with PAS and Umno any time.

The three parties make up a combined 23 seats – PAS 15, PPBM six and Umno two – just one seat short of a two-third majority.

In the 14th general election (GE14), apart from retaining Penang and Selangor, PH also wrested control of Kedah, Perak, Negri Sembilan, Malacca, Johor and Sabah.

Now, a change in government in Perak is inevitable.

In GE14, PH won 29 seats, one shy of a simple majority in the 59-seat state assembly. It was with the support of two Umno representatives that the coalition was able to form the government.

Following its exit from PH, PPBM, which has two seats, looks set to join Umno (25 seats) and PAS (three) to form a new government.

In Johor, PH garnered 36 of the total 56 seats in the last election.

DAP contributed the bulk with 14, followed by Parti Amanah Negara with nine, PPBM eight and PKR five.

The rest went to Umno (18), PAS and MIC (one each).

Although three Umno assemblymen have since defected to PPBM, there is no change in the number of seats controlled by the two parties, which is 26.

Together with two seats from PAS and MIC, the opposition alliance will have 28 seats, or make half the number in the state assembly.

It looks like the state government will change hands should any of the five PKR assemblymen defect.

Meanwhile, in the 28-seat Malacca state assembly, PH rules with 15 seats, just two seats more than Umno.

Should the two PPBM assemblymen team up with Umno, the state will see a reversal of roles between PH and Umno.