China facing population decline

Country records lowest birth rate since modern census-taking began in 1953

China’s population grew at its slowest in the last decade since the 1950s as births declined, sowing doubt over Beijing’s ability to power its economy as it succumbs to the same ageing trends afflicting developed nations like Japan.

With growth having ebbed ever since a one-child policy was introduced in the late 1970s, the 2020 results of the once-a-decade census yesterday showed the population of mainland China increased 5.38% to 1.41 billion.

That was the least since modern census-taking began in 1953.

Data showed a fertility rate of 1.3 children per woman for last year alone, on par with ageing societies like Japan and Italy.

The shrill alarm for China’s policymakers is that the world’s second-biggest economy may already be in irreversible population decline without having first accumulated the household wealth of G7 nations.

The number meant China narrowly missed a target it set in 2016 to boost its population to about 1.42 billion by 2020, with a fertility rate of around 1.8.

In 2016, China replaced its one-child policy – initially imposed to halt a population explosion at the time – with a two-child limit.

The sharp deterioration in demographics will fuel pressure on Beijing to ramp up incentives to couples to have more children – incentives that have thus far failed to offset the impact of career choices and cost-of-living challenges that couples say have deterred them from starting extended families.

Analysts said with substantial ageing of the population already in view, the census numbers will also give ammunition to policymakers arguing in favour of raising the retirement age sooner than later.

“From the trend of population development in recent years, the population growth will continue to slow in the future,” National Bureau of Statistics head Ning Jizhe said after the census results’ release.

“China’s population will reach a peak in the future, but the specific time is still uncertain.

“It is estimated that China’s total population will remain at more than 1.4 billion in the near future.”

In recent months, China’s state media has been increasingly bleak on the outlook, saying the population may start to shrink in the next few years.

The United Nations predicts the number of people living in China will peak in 2030, before declining.

As well as adding pressure on China’s working-age population and weighing on productivity, a diminishing pool of working adults will also test China’s ability to pay and care for an ageing nation.

Citizens aged 65 and older accounted for 13.5% of the population last year. – Reuters