The swingest of them all

The US Presidential contest is a competition for counties– the local units of government that make up an American state. The results in a handful of counties can determine which candidate bags the state’s Electors and, ultimately, the keys to the Oval Office.

From this standpoint, the USA is a collage of 3,141 counties and county-equivalents each leaving their imprint on the electoral process.

When candidates visit a state, most of the time they are less interested in the big flashy rally in the city arena than in nudging the sentiment of voters in the specific counties their campaigns laser-focus on. This is also where most of the fieldwork occurs, with grassroot activists knocking on doors and making calls to charge their bases and mobilise voters.

Voting patterns change in counties depending on issues and events. In 2016, for example, turnout fell drastically in counties with large African American communities such as Milwaukee County (Wisconsin), Wayne County (Michigan), and Philadelphia (Pennsylvania) and while Hillary Clinton still won these three counties outright, the numbers were still not enough for her to build a state-wide majority and Electoral Votes in their respective states eventually went to Donald Trump.

This election cycle, eight states around the country will be crucial in deciding who comes on top between Trump and Biden. Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan amount to 125 Electoral Votes altogether. Four years ago, the Republicans made a clean sweep of all these states, but Trump is trailing Biden in six of them this time round, holding slim leads only