The English have decided, now the others must

To hear some commentators, one would think the end of the world is nigh.

ngrima@independent.com.mt

So many catastrophes had been talked about by the Remain group before the vote that the Remain section of the media (and they are legion) has started to see evidence of the imminent collapse in every little thing. There is evidence a-plenty: • The pound initially soared as Remain was predicted to win, but then saw a dive bigger than that seen on ‘Black Wednesday’ when the 1992 Tory government was forced to withdraw Sterling from the European exchange markets.

• The FTSE 100 lost £122 billion in value within minutes of the London Stock Exchange opening on Friday morning. This led to the UK no longer being the fifth biggest economy in the world, according to reports, dropping behind France after the massive fall.

• Ratings agency Standard and Poor’s, along with several others, has confirmed that the UK is likely to lose its AAA credit rating due to the risks of Brexit.

I purposely used English in my title for this was definitely a decision taken by the English – neither by the Scots nor by the Northern Irish who were enthusiastic about remaining in the EU. The future months will tell us whether we can still talk of a United Kingdom.

Apart from the geographic sectioning of the electorate, there is another important factor that is not evident from the vote itself but which emerges from surveys and exit polls: it seems that the young voted massively for Remain while it was the older generations who voted to Leave.

That says a lot about the vote itself and the way it was set up, for which I blame David Cameron, but in no way does it detract anything from the legality of the vote. The vote is legal and Britain is out of the EU.

There is a brilliant video on The Guardian in this regard (and also http://www.theguardian.com/ politics/2016/jun/25/my-generation-will-feel-slapped-andsad-at-ourselves-for-being-so-bli nd-eu-referendum).

Historians will later argue how a decision about membership in the EU somehow became a decision about immigration when immigration is not one of the fundamental freedoms of the Union. Other member states in the EU, such as Hungary and Austria, have begun to take a more strict approach to the immigration issue, with no direct repercussions on their membership, so far. There are elections coming up in Europe and it looks like other xenophobic parties may be voted into power – France, Italy, maybe even Germany itself.

It will be a sad comment on Britain if some years down the line we find that the EU has taken a more robust approach to the issue which, had it happened before now, could have perhaps removed the basis of the Leave plank.

Although immigration is assuming an ever greater importance in so many EU countries, it is not in any way central to the European project. In other words, the English have voted in a way that is legal and clear for a reason that is not central to the European project. This was not picked up by the Remain group and not addressed properly.

It is true that the UK has become multicultural over the past decades to an extent that we in Malta cannot imagine. Yet the greatest multiculturalism is in London and London voted Remain.

There are then quite different streams of migrants. The UK has long accepted people from the Commonwealth – Pakistanis, Indians, people from the Caribbean, who have turned entire areas of the Midlands into ghettoes with all the accompanying problems of radicalized Islam and terrorism.

But after the accession of new member states in 2004 and later, the UK was invaded by Poles and Rumanians who benefit from the EU’s freedom of movement. These people are generally hardworking and not as dependent on the British social services as they are many times made out to be. Besides, there is another great contingent of migrants and these are the people in the services industry (waiters, etc), nurses and of course the thousands who work in the financial services which make the City the capital (so far) of European finance.

How the new post-Brexit, postCameron government will handle immigration is still to be seen, but one doubts whether it will get to the point that nonEnglish will be repatriated. And how will this post-Brexit government justify all the pain that Brexit will entail when it finds it can do nothing much to stem immigration?

There is now much noise of drawbridges being drawn up all over Europe, especially by France for its own historical reasons. I find this pathetic as France in particular is the sick man of Europe, living in a state of subordination to Germany, with a president on his way out, rioters and demos on the streets and living in spurious hope that Brexit will push many to leave London and settle across the sea, giving some boost to an economy in the doldrums. They cannot be serious unless they give the economy the same kind of freedom and flexibility such as enjoyed in the City of London, and somehow I very much doubt they can come up with that. Not when the rioters cause mayhem for removing the 35hour week, which is unheard of in the City.

The Brexit vote may not have been on a central theme but it is a fact that there is a clear sense in all member states that the EU is not working and that the euro is flawed. Somehow this did not feature much in the pre-referendum debate. Somehow, countries like Greece did not secede (although heaven knows they should have seeing the austerity punishment they took) but Britain did.

All over Europe, as I said earlier, the eurosceptic current is on the increase. In Italy, a slip of a girl from Beppe Grillo’s muchmaligned party became mayor of Rome and Renzi may be on the way out for not having delivered what he promised. In France, Marine Le Pen stands poised to become one of the second round contestants in next year’s election and the CentreLeft is still unsure who to field against her. And we must not forget the Benelux countries and Denmark which are very near to euroscepticism.

In other words, for all the brave sounds which will come from the scared European Council this week, and all the talk that the Brits must hurry on their way out (and please close the door), it is in reality a Europe in disarray that the English have left.

The euro is key. It was badly constructed, created on bad premises and the 2008 crisis has led to much patching but nothing structural. And the continuing austerity is hurting millions. All these disadvantaged millions have perhaps more reason to leave the EU than the English had. The coming months and years may make Brexit seem like child’s play.