The imponderables of the French election

By late evening on Sunday we will know the results of the first round of the French presidential election. The two candidates who get the most support will then pass on to the second round which takes place on 7 May.

In normal circumstances, the French presidential election is like no other election. But these are no ordinary circumstances and the French election is increasingly looking like an imponderable mystery.

The election is already the most unpredictable in a generation, with a collapse in support for the ruling Socialist party and the funding scandal engulfing Francois Fillon. The three leading candidates in the polls come from outside the mainstream political parties.

After five years of the deeply unpopular government of Francois Hollande, the Socialist candidate, Benoit Hamon, has struggled to unite the party but he only ranks around 9% in the first round. The received wisdom so far has spoken of Front National’s Marine Le Pen getting the biggest share on Sunday and making it to the next round.

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The question is who will join her in the second round. So far, it seemed that the candidate who will make it to the second round is independent centrist Emmanuel Macron who was said to beat Francois Fillon after the latter became engulfed in allegations of scandal about the employment of his wife Penelope.

The latest polls have Le Pen at 24% and Macron at 23%.

But in recent days the far-Left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon has soared in the polls. A month ago he was in fifth place, but he is now set to take 19% in the first round, according to pollster Ifop. That puts him in reach of Macron who is being attacked as a novice, a creation of the financial powers and the banks and as a man with no political experience.

The most recent polling has highlighted the prospect of both Le Pen and Melenchon making it to the second round, knocking out both Mr Fillon and Mr Macron.

A Kantar Sofres poll last Sunday indicated that if Mr Melenchon and Ms Le Pen made it to the second round, the left-winger would win comfortably with 57% of the vote.

So far, this is rather improbable, but the stakes in this year’s election are so high that anything can happen. On the economy, Mr Melenchon has promised to increase spending by more than €250 billion a year, lower the legal working week from 35 to 32 hours and tax 100% of any revenue 20 times greater than the median income.

The country faces huge problems: unemployment, race, a sluggish economy, terrorism…

Whatever the pollsters say, it is by no means certain that Ms Le Pen will lose the second round in May. Like the US, there is far too much anger down at street level that may lead to people actually voting in anger rather than abstaining in despair. Of course, seen from Brussels and many other EU capitals, the election of Ms Le Pen (and also of Mr Melenchon) would be anathema and could endanger the stability of the euro and of the EU. But the British voters at the referendum and the American voters at the November election did not bother about not voting for a risky outcome but went ahead and did it.